Dose: Last Second Madness - 03/08/2012
BY Aaron Bruski The last week or so has been interesting, as I’ve been assigned to cover the Kings arena story for ProBasketballTalk and a few other interesting things here for Rotoworld. Those that have followed along with me know that the Kings’ arena effort has been like an adopted child for me, and on Tuesday night the all-but deciding vote was cast to keep the team in town. Seeing the fans cheer after watching them tearfully refuse to leave the arena last year was a pretty nice payoff, and watching them organize en masse to save their team was compelling stuff. In the meantime, the fantasy season is amazingly nearing the end and last night’s action may have been the best of the year. There were four game-winning shots, a ton of big lines, injury news, and the like. We’ve been kicking ideas around over here with the format, because on a night like Wednesday I could easily write a four-page Dose. The feedback is fairly split. Some of you want more and some of you want less. For now I’m going to keep the thing to two pages and you guys should send your feedback about what you’d like to see. And before I waste anymore space, away we go. And for real-time news and fantasy information, which has become a must for the competitive fantasy player, CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER. MARCH MADNESS Out of 13 games last night, 10 of them were close, and the highlight shows probably ran out of space, too. Derrick Rose (30 points, eight rebounds, 11 assists) hit just 8-of-22 shots from the field, but was perfect in 14 attempts from the foul line and hit a game-winner with a filthy step-back crossover move on Brandon Jennings. If you didn’t like that, you can go to Jersey where the Clippers trapped a bit too early on Deron Williams and left Jordan Farmar (16 points, three treys) ! open for the game-winning 3-point shot -- released a good foot and a half behind the line. And if you like your game-winners Tyus Edny style here’s Kyrie Irving (18 points, five boards, eight assists, three steals) going full court to beat the Nuggets. Just issue him the first-year hardware right now. And lastly, for a bit of fantasy impact, if you don’t like Isaiah Thomas (12 points, 17 minutes) coming off an irrational benching to st eal the ball and pass to a streaking John Salmons for the game-winner – then you don’t like Kings basketball*. If there was ever a night to explain why fantasy basketball is on its way to passing baseball in terms of traffic and popularity, this was it. *The story on Thomas is one of two things. Keith Smart said last night that he was concerned about Jarrett Jack’s size upsetting Thomas, which is pretty ridiculous when you consider that Thomas is stronger than Jack, more athletic, and can block his shot. If we take that at face value, it means that Thomas is subject to matchups, and he’ll mix slow nights in with the good ones. I’m not going to begrudge anybody for dropping him for a hot free agent, but I’m personally holding. My conspiracy theory is that Smart is giving his veterans run right now knowing that soon it will soon be time to put them out to pasture. Smart may look at the decision in different terms – but John Salmons as an “elite defender” isn’t paying the bills when ! the Kings’ offense bogs down. The IT department, on the other hand, will make the team fully operational. Off the court, Thomas showed up at the Kings vote Tuesday night and is about 100 times more popular in Sacramento than Jimmer, which is actually saying something. COME AND GET YOUR PRIZE -- WEDNESDAY'S BEST Kevin Love scored 29 points with 16 rebounds and three triples, making him the first NBA player since the advent of the 3-point shot to go for 25 and 10 with three or more treys in three straight games. Trevor Booker went off for 18 points and a career-high 17 rebounds with a steal and a block in 38 minutes, and he simply needs to be owned in most formats until he proves he doesn’t belong. Andray Blatche (four points, two boards) played just 10 minutes and should be held in most cases throughout the week, but owners eyeballing a long-term value shouldn’t hesitate to make the drop. I told folks on Twitter to run, don’t walk to grab Evan Turner (26 points, nine rebounds, two assists, one three) after he drew another start and Doug Collins said that he would start the rest of the way. Of course, I felt a little queasy saying that, because we know that Turner is inconsistent and that his shot is often dangerous to those standing near the hoop. We’ll learn about Collins’ motivations as we go, but my guess is that he knows Spencer Hawes (back, Achilles) can’t be counted on and that he needs some extra punch heading into the playoffs. The only added punch he can get outside of a trade at the deadline is an increased role for both Turner and Nikola Vucevic (14 points, 12 boards, one steal, one block). The draw here for Turner is the versatility in his game, and the hope that the small steps forward he has taken this year will be augmented by the promotion. And when you’re hunting on the wire, you’re looking for upside like that. Vucevic was slated to start again, as well, but Thaddeus Young was a late scratch with the flu and Collins needed his scoring on the second unit. Readers here are well aware that I’ve been chomping at the bit to pick him up, but the reality has been that Collins wasn’t ready to let the sweet-shooting 7-footer loose. I’m not going to sit here and predict consistency, but like Turner there is upside for Vucevic if Collins is indeed prepping him for the playoffs. Hawes cannot commit to playing next week and he’s damaged goods in my book, and it’s fair to wonder if his early production was as much the result of Elton Brand’s struggles as it was Hawes taking a step forward. I’d call Vucevic a stronger speculative add in 12-team leagues, and if Collins gives him the green light to shoot from distance then he’ll have good upside, too. Jarrett Jack scored 25 points with three rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block in 33 minutes, and backup Greivis Vasquez also picked up the pace with 10 points, six boards, four assists, and a three in 23 minutes. I still like Vasquez as a stash that you can also plug in when you’re in a pinch, and Jack should obviously be owned and likely started in most formats. Trevor Ariza also took advantage of the Kings’ loose defense with 20 points, four rebounds, six assists, four steals, and a lucky three that would have been the game-winner had Isaiah Thomas not stolen his thunder. Chris Kaman continued to audition for a trade, scoring 18 points with 11 rebounds, eight assists, and two blocks. I don’t care what’s going on, he cannot be dropped. Gerald Wallace had a very quiet 13 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists while hitting half his shots. But the bigger fantasy story was Raymond Felton scoring a season-high tying 23 points on 11-of-18 shooting with four rebounds, nine assists, and a three in his second game as the starter once again in Portland. I was feeling the heat for calling Felton a buy-low guy a few weeks back, but the team-wide implosion/most-recent indictment of media favorite Nate McMillan wasn’t on my radar. The Blazers are still scuffling, but for fantasy owners it’s not a bad situation for Felton. If he doesn’t improve, McMillan is going to be fired, and if that happens he’ll likely improve un! der the new coach that will push all the buttons that McMillan hasn’t. The Thunder were a fantasy pinball machine last night, with three guys scoring 30 points and Serge Ibaka scoring 18 points with 20 rebounds and three blocks. Russell Westbrook scored 31 points with 10 assists, four steals, and three triples, James Harden scored a career-high 30 points on 8-of-12 shooting with four threes, two steals, and two blocks, and Kevin Durant had 30 points, three steals, and two blocks. And because the Thunder have installed the patented stand-and-wiggle offense, Durant was visibly frustrated during the game’s first half as his teammates took most of the shots. That’s a story for anoth! er time, but this team that should win multiple championships won’t get one until they figure out a simple post entry pass to somebody other than Kendrick Perkins. Marcin Gortat kept things rolling and made good on his talk about blocks, with three total to go with his career-high 28 points, 11 rebounds, and one steal. Joakim Noah scored 20 points with 10 rebounds and two blocks and I’ll certainly own my talk about him as a sell-high candidate. He bucked the pattern of trading off big games with Carlos Boozer and his early season struggles can barely be seen in the rear-view mirror. Drew Gooden scored a season-high 27 points with six rebounds, two steals, a block, and two threes, making whatever wrist and back ailments he has look like blips on the radar. The bigger fantasy story, though, was Ersan Ilyasova’s career-high 32 points, 10 rebounds, two threes, and 14-of-18 mark from the field. He’s returning early round value and this is definitely as good of a time to sell-high as any, but I don’t know how Scott Skiles can justify not rolling with him going forward. His fantasy friendly game has finally come to fruition, and I’m exceedingly glad that I recommended him thoroughly while coming off the bench earlier in the year. He’s a game-changer for owners. Chris Paul hit 7-of-11 shots for 22 points with six rebounds, 10 assists, five steals, and three triples, and there hasn’t been as much as a peep about his knee. I ranked him No. 3 on my draft list after he moved to L.A., but my concern about his knee might have deterred folks. I hope that wasn’t the case for you. Randy Foye finally busted out of his slump, hitting 8-of-18 shots (including five threes) for 24 points. The Clips will monitor how he does and may still bring in another shooting guard, but for now Foye should be owned in 12-team leagues that reward 3-point shooting. If he doesn’t fall off a cliff, he’s on his way toward moving his current 38.5 percent shooting mark to his 41.1 percent career average. Alonzo Gee kept his foot on the gas with 19 points, seven boards, three assists, four steals, one block, and one 3-pointer last night. He hit 7-of-12 shots from the field and should be owned in most 8- and 9-cat formats, as he could easily start for the rest of the year and is averaging a similar line since he took over the job. Kate Upton showed up at the Oklahoma City Thunder game, causing teams on her side of the floor to shoot 39 percent, while the other side they shot a more respectable 49 percent. Yes, this qualifies as fantasy analysis. BREAK YOURSELF Blake Griffin (knee) sent owners into a panic when his left knee came up gimpy, but the post-game reports indicated it wasn’t serious and he’ll take a sprained left ankle and “sore left knee” into Friday’s game, which Griffin says he’ll play in. The crisis was averted, and his 28 points, 17 rebounds, two steals, and one block were a nice diversion in the process. Nene (calf) started, played 22 minutes, and posted a decent 13 and five line with two steals and a block. The Nuggets will play it safe but he’s on his way. Kenneth Faried (five points, nine boards, no steals or blocks) started but played just 20 minutes due to foul trouble, and as much as I’d like him to see him play 30 minutes a game he has a tough road to hoe ahead. He should be owned right now but if you’re staring at a hot free agent I’d make the move. Danilo Gallinari (ankle) played 22 minutes off the bench and should be up and running soon. Selling high on Arron Afflalo (13 points) and Al Harrington (22 and eight) makes sense, though I’ll back off that a tad if Wilson Chandler and Rudy Fernandez keep playing the invisible game. I have no idea why the Warriors didn’t just wait until Stephen Curry (foot) was fully healthy, but Mark Jackson thinks that because it’s his foot and not his ankle that the ‘Warrior’ code should be abided (no pun). Curry did look healthy and posted 15 points on 7-of-11 shooting with four boards and three assists, so Jackson unintentionally made the right call. I’m starting to ignore the reports out of Atlanta because they’ve been overly optimistic about Joe Johnson (knee) over the past few weeks, but he might be targeting Sunday’s game for a return. Nobody has stepped up in his absence. Jeff Teague joined the injured with an ankle sprain during the game, but returned and finished with 16 points, four boards, and two assists. He had nine assists on Tuesday and has scored just fine, but 2.9 assists/game in February and 3.8 in March just aren’t cutting it. Running the offense through Smoove isn’t helping, either. Andrea Bargnani (calf) may be targeting Sunday’s game for a return, but hasn’t had a contact practice yet and until that happens I’m taking any report with a grain of salt. Amir Johnson (knee) returned last night and scored 14 points with seven boards and three blocks in 29 minutes. Johnson hasn’t proven to be consistent, but when Dwane Casey isn’t messing with his minutes he tends to operate without influence from his teammates. Fouls are his biggest concern. Gustavo Ayon (sore foot) has provided quiet late round value, and owners should stick with him while we send a carrier pigeon to New Orleans to ask how he’s doing. Otherwise, we may never find out. DeMarcus Cousins (food poison, phallic photos) did not play last night. I have no idea if the allegations about improper photos are true, but it sure made for a great laugh during the city council meeting. As I tweeted, Brett Favre said it wasn’t a big deal. In fairness, that could have been anybody’s penis. Nikola Pekovic told beat writers that his ankle injury wasn’t serious, and after noting the tattoo of piled up skulls on his shoulder all of them nodded their heads in agreement. He's still questionable for Friday's game against the Lakers. Apparently Tyson Chandler's hamstring injury is enough to put his entire weekend and Monday in jeopardy, but the time off might be a godsend for his wrist injuries, anyway. Josh Harrellson went for eight and eight with a steal and block in 22 minutes, and might be a candidate for spot work. Zach Randolph (knee) is targeting Tuesday’s game despite traveling with the team throughout the weekend slate of games. Marreese Speights destroyed – wait for it – David Lee for 18 points, seven boards, two steals, and a block, and is a risky candidate for spot-work until Z-Bo returns. He’s not going to see the same Lee-fence every night (puns not guns). Dwyane Wade's Roethlisberger-like legend grows a little every day, and his ankle looked fine as he put up 18 points, nine boards, six assists, and three steals in 35 minutes. James Johnson took a nasty knee to the leg from Samuel Dalembert and played just 17 minutes. His stat line (10 points, 3/3 FGs, two rebounds, two steals, a steal, and a block) was fine, though Linas Kleiza’s 19 points in 24 minutes and lack of a post-game report about Johnson make the situation murky. Give Kleiza a look while he’s hot, as usual, and don’t do anything rash with Johnson. His upside is tremendous. BUT WHAT, THERE'S MORE (INJURY NEWS) Richard Hamilton (shoulder) will be out “a bit,” and owners can make the drop. Who knows how safe the Bulls will play things. Ronnie Brewer is worth a short-term look after seven points, five boards, and five assists in 32 minutes. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (knee) did not play, and owners need to be ready to subtract 15-25 minutes from the Bucks’ pot when he returns. Thaddeus Young (illness) did not play, causing Nikola Vucevic to come off the bench. Young is quietly putting up a nice Roto camp! aign. Tony Parker has a sore left wrist and a tender right calf, but you wouldn’t know it by the 32 points and six assists he put up against Knicks bigs that can’t defend the P/R. J.J. Barea left last night’s game with an ankle injury, and Luke Ridnour got hot with 22 points, four rebounds, five assists, and three triples in 37 minutes. Ridnour should be owned in 12-team formats, despite being a fairly risky asset long-term, as Ricky Rubio (eight points, four assists) is scuffling and Barea’s injury didn’t seem great. Despite all that, I’m selling Wes Johnson’s 19 points, two steals, ! and three triples. Maybe he’ll work out one day, but we’ve seen this flick before. Devin Harris (knee) played and put up nine points with four rebounds and four assists, and should still be owned in 12-team formats. Kyle Lowry played through the flu and scored 16 points with four assists. Nothing to see here. Manu Ginobili (oblique) is getting back on track, posting 17 points, four boards, six assists, a steal, and a block in 26 minutes. As Doc said in the blurbs, it’s not a bad time to think about selling high. Owners will think they’re getting an asset on the upswing and you’ll be unloading your risk. There’s value on both sides of the equation. YOU JUST NEVER TELL ME HOW YOU FEEL Go back and check out the player blurbs for more info, including updates on Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Jeremy Lin, Jared Dudley, MarShon Brooks, Caron Butler, DeAndre Jordan, Carlos Delfino, Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Shelden Williams, Iman Shumpert, |
