Dose: It's Bottom Line Time - 04/18/2012
BY Aaron Bruski One day we’ll sit around the water cooler and try to make sense of this lockout-inspired season, but we still have a week or so to go before it’s time to do that. For those that are still playing, we're looking at daily league decisions and there is potentially one more weekly deadline in Roto formats that count next week. This means we’ll be evaluating players in a very short-window, so allegiances need to be thrown out and owners need to employ bottom-line thinking. It’s also that time of the year when folks need to decide whether or not they’re going to play it safe or shoot for the stars – and that question of risk management is ultimately a personal one. Owners need to go with their guts at this time of the year. If you don’t, you’ll regret it all summer long if it doesn’t work out. Take a look at your opponent’s roster, project their scores, and decide if your team’s projections put you behind, even, or ahead. If you’re behind, you’ll want to lean toward taking a risk. If you’re even or ahead, you’ll want to lean toward the safer play. Ultimately this is a game of speculation, with forces beyond anybody’s control, and that’s what makes the game both elating and insufferable at the same time. To get real-time fantasy information to make those last-second decisions with, click here to follow me on Twitter. BETTER LATE THAN NEVER Darren Collison (groin) was a shutdown candidate late Monday night, but managed to wiggle his way into pregame warm-ups before deciding not to play last night against the Sixers. I mentioned somewhere around here that he aggravated the injury to avoid being “Pipped,” and somebody needs to step in and tell the player that they don’t have the right to jeopardize the team. Regardless of those realities, in fantasy I’m holding George Hill and not letting go. Hill scored 12 points with four rebounds, seven assists, a steal, a block, and two threes, and one has to wonder where things went wrong while he struggled for most of the year. LIMPING INTO THE POT The Sixers are limping into the playoffs record-wise, and are now just 1.5 games ahead of the Bucks for the East’s final playoff spot. They returned to a more normal lineup last night, but still fell to the Pacers in relatively normal fashion in the box score. Jrue Holiday slowed down with eight points, five boards, and three treys, Andre Iguodala put up another stellar line with 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting, three treys, seven boards, six assists, and a steal, and Elton Brand went for 11 and eight with a steal and three blocks. Nikola Vucevic started but nearly fouled out in 11 minutes, and Jodie Meeks continued to struggle as a starter with four points on 1-of-4 shooting and not much else. The bench trio of Lou Williams (18 points, 5-of-14 FGs, 7-of-8 FTs), Thaddeus Young (19 points, 7-of-10 FGs, one three), and Spencer Hawes (12 points, eight boards, five turnovers) was productive, more or less. Evan Turner turned in an unsurprising zero points on 0-for-3 shooting with seven boards and four assists in 27 minutes, and still can’t be relied upon in most formats. DON’T BEAT YOURSELF UP Kyrie Irving (shoulder) will go through shootaround tonight to see if he can play, and Byron Scott is “growing confident” that Irving will play again this year. After beating himself up for letting the franchise player return too early, that’s a sign that Irving has proven some degree of health. I like his chances of returning, and if not tonight then either Friday or even on Sunday to start a stretch of four games in five nights. Anderson Varejao (wrist) is traveling with the Cavs on their road trip, but he isn’t participating in shootarounds and seems like a longshot to return this season. As for last night’s game, there’s not a whole lot to say when the Cavs were losing to the Pistons by the score of 100-50 at one point. Donald Sloan (six points, four assists) and Lester Hudson (seven points, one assist) have run their course and with Irving looking like a decent bet to return, they are well worth dropping for free agents. Antawn Jamison went 0-for-10 from the field and while he’s a shutdown candidate, it stands to reason that Byron Scott won’t let him leave the gym without making his last shot. Scott said before the game that he wanted to get a closer look at Manny Harris, and Harris did his part by scoring 18 points off the bench on 6-of-9 shooting with three treys, three rebounds, and one assist. He won’t be a great play on a busy Wednesday night, even in 14-16 team leagues, but he’ll be worth watching to see if he can carry the momentum over. Alonzo Gee (ankle) did not play, and while we don’t know if the injury is serious, a return by Gee (and Irving) could render Harris useless. Anthony Parker scored 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting with two threes and one assist, and unlike a lot of vets in this situation he might go all the way to the finish line due to his retirement. He’s been a good locker room guy and that plays into his favor. Tristan Thompson managed to weather the storm and I like the volume of shots he got, as he hit 6-of-16 field goals for 12 points, 13 boards, two assists, and a steal in 34 minutes. I look at his past struggles as half his own, and the other half being attached to the leash Scott puts on players that he’s not happy with for whatever reason. Omri Casspi started for Gee and scored 11 points with four boards, three steals, and two threes in 37 minutes, and could also be worth a look if Gee cannot go. Just don’t bet your house on the guy. HEY YOU GUYS! As one can imagine when a team holds a 100-50 lead, there will be some interesting happenings in the box score. Topping the list was Brandon Knight’s career-best 28 points on a ridiculous 11-of-12 shooting line that included four threes, two rebounds, and seven assists. I opined that Knight might finally get the keys to the car after playing an off-guard role over the past month or so, and his recent play suggests that might be the case. Normally, Rodney Stuckey would dominate the deferential Knight, but he chilled back with eight points on 3-of-8 shooting, four boards, six assists, a steal, and a block. Maybe it’s the prospect of the back-to-back-to-back that started last night, but it’s a trend to watch going forward. For those in deeper leagues, Charlie Villanueva might be getting a look-see by Pistons management after spending the year chained up in the basement like Sloth. He scored 10 points with eight boards, one steal, one block, and one three in 22 minutes. SCHEDULING ISSUES Marc Gasol started last night despite a bone bruise in his knee, but by most accounts he should have stayed on the sidelines. He scored four points on 2-of-8 shooting with three rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block, and I'm calling him questionable for tonight’s game against the Hornets and Friday’s game against the Bobcats doesn’t exactly scream ‘gut it out,’ either. The Grizzlies are pretty much locked into the five-seed and face a struggling trio of teams following Friday’s game, including matchups with the Blazers, Cavs, and Magic. I’m not advising panic because the injury could truly be minor, but a bone bruise isn’t anything to shake a stick at and the schedule is what it is. The Grizzlies’ box went according to script, with Rudy Gay leading the way with 28 points, nine boards, four assists, two steals, and a three, Mike Conley scoring 16 points with five rebounds, eight assists, and two threes, and Zach Randolph went for 16 and 11 in their win over the Wolves. Tony Allen stepped up for steals hunters with four of them, but managed just two points, four assists, and a block otherwise. O.J. Mayo slowed down with five points on 2-of-8 shooting to go with three rebounds, four assists, three steals, and a three, and Marreese Speights had 12 points and four boards in just 14 minutes. All of them are worth a look in fantasy leagues, but particularly if Gasol stays in the lineup are going to have their issues with consistency. THE LAND OF MISFIT HYBRID FORWARDS The Wolves, for the commendable season they had, are limping into the final week of the year. A report emerged before last night’s game that Nikola Pekovic could be shut down due to his ankle issues, but that he would still play against the Grizzlies. The good news is that he put up 16 points with 11 boards and a block, but the bad news is that another report emerged this morning echoing that he could be shut down. All owners can do is cross their fingers and play the situation day-by-day, and if we get bad news then the group of misfit hybrid forwards described below each gets a small bump. Kevin Love is going to take league-mandated concussion tests today, and he is apparently targeting Sunday’s game for a return. That still sounds a bit shaky since he was reportedly “disoriented while in bed,” but perhaps those symptoms have subsided. His replacements are a total mess and have to be considered big-time rolls of the dice no matter how you slice things. Anthony Randolph drew another start but managed just four points on 1-of-8 shooting with three rebounds, two assists, one steal, and two blocks, Derrick Williams played just seven minutes, Michael Beasley had seven points with one board and a three in 18 minutes, and Anthony Tolliver got run for 27 minutes on his way to seven points, seven boards, two steals, and one block after a quiet week leading to last night. Again, use them at your own risk. Luke Ridnour was getting treatment on his ankle before last night’s game, and he is also targeting the Wolves’ last two games for a return. I don’t know if he can do it, but he’s going to try. I’m not concerned in the places that I own Barea, who went nuts for 28 points on 10-of-20 shooting (including five threes) with five rebounds, eight assists, and a steal. LAST MEN STANDING Ray Allen (ankle) was a late scratch after reports emerged in the morning that he would play, and the Celtics have absolutely no incentive to play him having locked up the No. 4 seed already by all-but winning their division. Mickael Pietrus (ankle) joined him on the shelf, leaving the usual suspects to do the work in the Celtics’ loss to the Knicks. Rajon Rondo continued his dominance with 13 points, six rebounds, 13 assists, a steal, and two rare threes, Kevin Garnett scored 20 points with a full line, Brandon Bass posted 15 points, six boards, and a block, and Paul Pierce tried to keep up with Melo in a 43-point effort in which he hit 11-of-19 shots (4-of-6 from deep, 17-of-18 from the line). Avery Bradley was able to do damage with 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting (including five threes) to go with three rebounds and nothing else. He is efficient shooting the ball, which takes away some of the risk in using him in deeper formats. Greg Stiemsma put up goose eggs across the board last night, which is what happens to guys with his pedigree from time to time. Given his torrid steals and blocks pace, owners will want to simply erase the game from memory. LOOK WHO’S HOGGING ALL THE ASSISTS Props to Tommy Beer, who either came up with that quip or passed it along from somebody else (I can’t recall). Anyway, don’t look now but the Knicks are rolling, and the guy I called a cancer is leading the charge in a big way. Carmelo Anthony triple-doubled with 35 points, 12 boards, 10 assists, two steals, and two threes, and is a classic example of a round peg fitting into a round hole within Mike Woodson’s system. Not only does Woodson embrace the isolation offense, he knows what the Knicks brass wants and he’s giving it to them. Most importantly for the team’s record, though, is their commitment to defense under Woodson. Add in a weak schedule over the past three weeks, and the Knicks are gaining momentum at precisely the right time. J.R. Smith joined the party last night with 25 points, four rebounds, six assists, a steal, and a whopping seven threes, and Steve Novak did him one better with 25 points on 8-of-10 shooting (all threes). The losers were Baron Davis (zero points, one assist), whose injuries could be the focus of another column, and Iman Shumpert (six points, 24 minutes), whose production hasn’t matched his value to the team as a defensive stopper/point guard. Amare Stoudemire (back) is targeting a return Friday, and if you’re in a 12-team league that plays next week I’d be at least willing to consider a pickup if I need a big. Yes, he’ll be limited upon his return, but the Knicks would also like to integrate him before the games count. This will crowd matters for Shumpert, and along with struggling Landry Fields (two points, five boards, 19 minutes) owners should feel free to aggressively make the drop. Shumpert is the guy to hold if you have to choose, but at this time of year don’t pass up on an emerging asset for promise that may never pan out. As for Smith, he has been a must-own player for a while, and Novak is still just a guy to target if you need threes. MEDIOCRE SANDWICH The Warriors helped the Spurs kick off their triple-set of games on Monday, and the Spurs went into the Staples Center and took a game from the Lakers last night. They’ll head to Sacramento for tonight’s game, which is most-certainly a recipe for the Big Three to rest. Does that even help fantasy owners if the trio doesn’t play? Who knows. Tony Parker scored 29 points on 14-of-20 shooting with 13 assists in a clinic last night, Manu Ginobili scored 15 points with six boards and four assists, and Tim Duncan went for 19 and eight in the win. The rest of the box score was predictably shaky, but if you’re in a pinch and ready to roll the dice somebody has to step up. I think. BAIL-OUT CALLS Kobe Bryant (shin) didn’t play last night, as expected, and tonight's game against the Warriors isn't likely to draw him away from the grease board on the sidelines. The No. 3 Lakers will likely be motivated to stay ahead of the No. 4 Clippers, who trail by 0.5 games, and they’ll also likely want to avoid likely No. 5 seed Memphis. This puts the spotlight on Friday’s game against the Spurs and Sunday’s game against the Thunder. I think there’s enough chance that he’ll play for owners to continue holding if they’ve made it this long. On a separate note, if you go back and check out all my sell-high predictions for Kobe earlier in the year, mileage was a huge issue for me. It was about 1/3 to 1/2 of my logic, so I don’t want to go nuts here, but it appears I got bailed out on that call. Metta World Peace (11 points, three boards, three assists, three steals) and Matt Barnes (16 points, six rebounds, four assists, two threes) are running around freely, and Andrew Bynum (21 points, seven boards) and Pau Gasol (16 points, seven rebounds, five assists) are threats to go big every night. Don’t panic on MWP and Barnes when if/when Kobe returns, either, as they were producing at low-end levels with the Mamba in the fold, too. FOUR QUARTERS OF INJURY FURY 1ST QUARTER: Derrick Rose (foot) traveled with the team for their two-game road trip, but the bad news is that tonight’s opponent is the Bobcats, who wouldn’t win the D-League championship right now. Richard Hamilton said that he felt good after playing 34 minutes on Monday. He has put up strong numbers in 2-of-4 games and is worth a look, especially if Rose is going to miss more time. Glen Davis (knee) said on Monday that he would play tonight, but Stan Van Gundy backed off of that a bit and says he’s not certain to go against his old Celtics squad. He should still be owned for his expected production when he returns from this seemingly minor ailment. Earl Clark and Daniel Orton are worth a look if Davis cannot go. Kevin Martin (shoulder) could play tonight against the Mavs, and the Rockets certainly need a win, but it’s hard to picture him coming off the shelf to play a major role after not running for five weeks. I’ll need to see it before I buy it, but if you’re in need of a Hail Mary in deeper formats I’ll add that the Rockets may be in desperation mode themselves. 2ND QUARTER: Deron Williams (calf) was ruled out for tonight’s game about 36-48 hours before tip-off, and he’s a guy that owners will want to break out the abacus with. Project your replacement player’s stats and draw a line in the sand. Don’t let a player’s potential run you into multiple zeroes when a shutdown is looming. Sundiata Gaines posted solid low-end numbers in a start for him on Monday, and is worth a speculative add for those needing point guard help. Gerald Wallace (hamstring) is questionable, and if he doesn’t go tonight then I think the writing will be on the wall there, too. D.J. Augustin is apparently contemplating playing tonight despite a knee injury that has all-but sapped his offense. Of course that’s ridiculous when Kemba Walker needs developmental minutes and Bobcats players are getting worse nightly because there’s no discernible plan being implemented. The good news is that Walker has been productive during the mess, so owners shouldn’t panic. 3RD QUARTER: Samuel Dalembert busted out a season-high seven blocks on Monday and then busted out a back injury yesterday, too. His injury isn’t as serious as Marcus Camby’s back ailment, which kept him out of practice and has him questionable for tonight’s critical game against the Mavs. Owners can definitely consider Sammy D as a risky spot-play with some upside if he can play and Camby doesn’t go. Chris Kaman is likely out for the regular season with a tibia injury, which doesn’t sound serious but the Hornets have finally taken this tanking/player development thing seriously. Jason Smith, Carl Landry, and Gustavo Ayon will wrap up the year down low. I like them in that order, though the first two are going to alternate big games going forward. 4TH QUARTER: Wilson Chandler (groin) does not have a timetable for return and a game or two to finish the regular season would be a ‘win.’ Al Horford (torn pectoral) was quietly cleared for contact work and while it seems like a longshot right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawks sneak in one game’s worth of limited work for the big man. Reggie Williams (concussion) is probably done for the year, giving Derrick Brown more chance to be a low-end asset with an emphasis in steals. |
