Dose: Bayless Plays Less - 03/21/2012
BY Aaron Bruski After running our trade deadline coverage for the second straight year, I have to admit I have been feeling pretty raw over the past week or so. For anybody providing comprehensive fantasy analysis, this is already a 24/7, 60-80 hour per week job, and adding the deadline coverage I didn’t sleep all that much. It’s okay, though, as I recharged this weekend with some St. Patty’s Day debauchery and a hibernation for the ages. If I didn’t get to your Twitter or email, I can’t say that things will get better in the long-run as fantasy basketball traffic continues to obliterate records, but I doubt the inquires will be coming in faster than I can answer like they were last week. To follow me on Twitter where the real-time dirt gets dished, click here. BAYLESS PLAYS LESS Jose Calderon (ankle) returned from a five-game absence on Tuesday, and had 11 points and nine assists in a surprising 35 minutes. During that five-game absence, Jerryd Bayless averaged 21.8 points, 2.4 threes, 3.6 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.6 turnovers while shooting 54 percent from the field and 84 percent from the line. During that time Bayless was a top-7 play in 8- and 9-cat leagues. Clearly, Bayless can hold his own on the offensive end, and defensively the comparison to Calderon isn’t even close. Calderon ranks 295th in the league according to Synergy Sports in giving up 0.91 points per possession, and he allows opposing players to shoot 40.5 percent from the field (a high number in their measuring system) and 40.9 percent from distance. ! Compare those numbers to Bayless’ corresponding marks of 0.83 PPP (ranked 164th), 36.8 percent, and 28.6 percent and you can see the gap is massive. Bayless was held to 13 minutes last night, but of course he still managed seven points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He also suffered a hip pointer that didn’t really change the tenor of the position battle, and would have only added 5-10 minutes at most to his playing time. The injury doesn’t look too serious, but we’ll have to wait until sometime today to get an update. Setting the injury aside for a moment and considering the disparity in what each player brings to the table, we’re really only left to speculate about whether or not Dwane Casey is willing to have a changing of the guard. Or, is he subscribing to the theory that a player (Calderon) can’t lose his position to injury or some other erroneous evaluation of personnel. For now, owners have to look at their rosters and determine if they can stash Bayless away. His upside is tremendous, Calderon is an injury-prone guy, Bayless is the better player, and the Raptors are going nowhere with Calderon long-term. Similarly to Scottie Brooks, Casey gets little to no pressure in Toronto to justify his decisions, so we’ll be waiting game-to-game to see if Bayless can knock Jose out, assuming the hip pointer is minor as the local rags thought it was last night. I’ll be waiting it out in the fistful of places I own him, but if I were fighting for a playoff spot I wouldn't be passing up a hot free agent to do it. DON’T RE-ENACT SCENES FROM PLATOON WITH CHARLIE SHEEN Darren Collison (four points, two assists, 25 minutes) has taken up cliff diving for the Pacers, and finally George Hill (15 points, four rebounds, six assists, 6-of-7 FGs, 3 3PT) has shown us something after the Pacers gave up Kawhi Leonard for the right to acquire Hill during the draft. Hill is definitely the player to own going forward, though I don't have a ton of confidence in either guy. Tyler Hansbrough (17 points, three rebounds) was hot and David West (three points, two rebounds) was not, but we need to see Psycho T do it again before ! opening the power forward position up to discussion. Similarly, I’ll need to see Paul George (seven points, six rebounds, 24 minutes) fall off a cliff before I’ll plan on it happening. Leandro Barbosa (12 points, one three, 18 minutes) could complicate matters, but does Frank Vogel really want to turn to platoons this close to the playoffs? TOP RAMON Ramon Sessions isn’t starting yet, but he may as well be as he took the lion’s share of minutes last night. Sessions put up 14 points, two boards, four assists, and a steal on 6-of-9 shooting in 29 minutes, while “starter” Steve Blake had just two points and three assists in 19 minutes. I know there has been some talk about Sessions not starting, and even if it’s just a planned decision to put more playmaking on the second unit I’m not concerned. Add another five minutes to tonight’s totals and that’s what owners can expect nightly. ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION The Blazers are still a mess in reality, but the change away from Nate McMillan and trade of Gerald Wallace has been a blessing for anybody not named Nicolas Batum (12 points, five rebounds, one steal). Jamal Crawford also struggled last night with three points on 1-of-8 shooting, but that’s not totally out of character for a guy that runs hot and cold at times. I’m not overly worried about either of them, and I’m just loving my buy low candidates from earlier in the year Raymond Felton (18 points, nine assists, one steal, one block, six turnovers) and Wesley Matthews (21 points, nine rebounds, five threes, two steals, and one block). The problem wasn’t the talent, and even in the case of Felton the conditioning was a distant second to a broken locker room. I’m not going to say that Felton and his teammates didn’t help to make the mess, but he isn’t the first guy to report in one way or another that McMillan had issues pushing the right buttons (Jesus Shuttlesworth was). A PAIR OF NICKELS Tony Allen is going to be a popular add for the Grizzlies’ upcoming pair of five-game weeks, and after his 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting, three rebounds, two assists, and three steals last night owners might as well make the move. Yes, there is some risk there, but it’s mitigated risk and he could also end up being a monster. Zach Randolph isn’t going to be rushed back into being ‘the man,’ and he avoided a scare last night after tweaking his knee in a pile-up with DeMarcus Cousins. He stayed in the game and finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, and two steals, so owners should be cautiously optimistic. Just remember that he approached rehab with a tremendous amount o! f caution. Similarly, Rudy Gay’s owners don’t have to panic that Z-Bo will steal their thunder just yet, as Gay continued to surge with 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting, six boards, and two assists. You can add O.J. Mayo to Allen’s boat in the five-game weeks, even after disappointing owners with six points in 17 minutes. His averages of 12 points, four boards, three assists, and 1.6 threes over his last five overrule one bad night. IT’S BIODIGITAL JAZZ, MAN Raja Bell (adductor) is out through at least Thursday and Josh Howard (knee) is out for the year, and I’ve been riding the Gordon Hayward (11 points, eight rebounds, two steals, block, 3PT) train more or less so you know I’m not stopping now. C.J. Miles, starting next to Hayward, scored 10 points with five rebounds, two assists, and three steals, and is an average-looking speculative add in 12-team leagues. Al Jefferson (16 points, six boards, four assists, one steal, one block) is back and Derrick Favors (seven points, nine rebounds, one steal, three blocks, 22 minutes) is back to being an inconsistent option in 12-team formats. RIDE OR DIE The Kings don’t have a lot to show in the standings for their growth this season, but covering the team this season it’s clear to me that Keith Smart has done a pretty good job. He’s not without his warts, and plenty of local media isn’t thrilled with the Maloof’s decision to extend his contract – but I get it. Smart is getting through to DeMarcus Cousins and that alone is good enough for me, but his energy is perfect for the job and his execution is at least in the right ballpark. But back to the warts, I’ve been all over Smart for his decision (or indecision) regarding Isaiah Thomas, as Smart handed Thomas a sub-30 minute role after he single-handedly changed the dynamic of the Kings a few weeks back. When Mr. Relevant is on the floor, they look like a balanced, better team. The second unit, comprised of veterans Chuck Hayes, Donte Greene, and at the time Francisco Garcia and John Salmons --- had a few nice nights but they also had some dogs. Still, Smart continued to go with his vets at the expense of Thomas! , who played virtually flawless basketball for most of his time on the court. Things have changed as of late, though, as Thomas’ minutes have dipped below the 30-minute mark just once in four games, after five games with no more than 28 minutes and one game during that span at 17 minutes. I opined at the time that maybe Smart just wanted to give his vets some run before fazing them out for the rest of the year and I'm still leaning that way. Whether the goal is to win now or plan for next year, Thomas should eventually play 35-plus minutes per game and the sky is the limit. Really, they should be running him for 40 minutes per game as the kid can handle it. And if the powers that be aren't planning on using him as their undisputed starter next year, they have no business running a professional basketball team. On offense, his decision-making and ball security are already plus assets. On defense – whether in the post or off the ball or running through screens – he is a plus player. With the press and off the court – he is a plus player. I have yet to see a single weakness. If you can find one, send it to me and I’ll eat my words. Elsewhere in Sacto, Tyreke Evans (ankle) hopefully turned some heads with a selfless request to come off the bench. He scored 13 points with four rebounds and three assists, and his production will be similar no matter where he plays. Who knows, a bench role could free him up for more one-on-one play, too. Marcus Thornton scored 31 points with seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals, and if you own him you’ll also be rooting for Thomas to play heavy minutes because the correlation is there. Jason Thompson has truly taken a step forward this season and proved it again last night with 14 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block. Smart’s handling of Thompson ha! s been another ‘wart,’ as the Kings are night-and-day different with JT on the floor. And no, this production is not a fluke, as his post-game now includes a variety of flip shots that he didn’t have last year, he’s cutting down on his fouls, and playing smarter in general – which has been pretty obvious to those watching the games. He should be owned in most, if not all formats, and the only thing that can stop him is Smart playing the matchups. DRAGIC’S MAGIC Goran Dragic was perhaps the most predictable waiver wire pickup of the year to date, and did his work again last night with 16 points, seven rebounds, 13 assists, and a 3-pointer late to seal the Rockets’ win over the Lakers. I somehow managed to pick him up in my big money league with the fifth or sixth most FAAB money available, and I’m planning on riding him to the finish with Kyle Lowry looking to have about a 40 percent chance of playing before the playoffs start (the Rockets hold the No. 8 seed). Kevin Martin missed another game with his shoulder injury, and the obvious question is whether or not there is anything other than his shoulder that is contributing to his absence. There were a few reports that he was unhappy with both Kevin McHale and also Daryl Morey prior to the deadline, and owners simply need to assess their roster and see if the juice is worth the squeeze. Every situation will be different. If you were able to grab Courtney Lee (23 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals, three treys) and bench Martin you’re on the right track. On his own, Lee should be owned in all formats, but if your team is stacked and you have to drop a consistent starter he’s not an insta-grab, obviously. Martin’s return will be a drag for Lee. Samuel Dalembert (eight points, four rebounds, three blocks) is not a must-own player anymore with Marcus Camby in town, but nights like these are going to be in his vocabulary. BUCK HUNTIN The Bucks are playing an exciting brand of basketball right now with lots of movement and running, which has allowed them to support relatively consistent fantasy play from Brandon Jennings (15 points, six assists), newly acquired Monta Ellis (14 points, nine assists), Drew Gooden (19 points, four rebounds, five assists), recently productive Carlos Delfino (16 points, five boards, four threes), Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Dunleavy (15 points, three treys), and even Beno Udrih (15 points, four assists, four steals) in deeper formats. We know that Delfino, Dunleavy, and Udrih will come with question marks for obvious reasons including streakiness, health, and playing time, respectively. And for once in a very long time, Scott Skiles has stopped messing with players’ minutes. After checking into Ilyasova’s 23 minutes in a slow seven-point, four-rebound, and four-turnover effort last night, I’m guessing the same thing can be said going forward. Ersanity played his normal complement of minutes in the first half, and left mid-way through the third quarter before the rout was on. Owners just need to cross their fingers and hope that Skiles doesn’t tinker with what’s working. ODDS AND ENDS LeBron took a fall on his elbow and stayed in the game last night, and also took a shot to the head, so we’ll be watching his status in advance of his next game on Friday. If he is in any danger of missing it, you’ll have to be hiking around Yosemite to miss the update. Nikola Pekovic is dealing with two hurt ankles, but the Spurs are more likely to bring him into the fold on Wednesday than the Warriors were on Monday. Shawn Marion has no structural issues in his knee, but is still questionable for tonight’s game against the Lakers. Guessing here, but I think he’ll go. Andre Miller will not go tonight after separating his shoulder on Monday. With Danilo Gallinari out for the foreseeable future, Arron Afflalo’s owners get a reprieve and Wilson Chandler should be owned in all 8/9 cat formats. Rodney Stuckey’s toe injury is still on the radar after a slow weekend, and he will be a game-time decision tonight. Richard Hamilton (shoulder) can lift his arm over his head, but his season still is in doubt. Ronnie Brewer had a slow night on Monday but is well worth watching as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type player. Andray Blatche (calf, conditioning) is being shut down for the next two weeks or so, and he was droppable a few days ago. He’ll compete for fantasy bust honors. Nick Young got his first start and scored 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting with five rebounds, one assist, and one 3-pointer. I expect a much better brand of basketball out Young going forward, as Chris Paul will undress him for all to see if Young does not oblige. |
