Wednesday, February 22, 2012

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Mr. Relevant Does It Again - 02/22/2012
BY Aaron Bruski

LATEST FANTASY BASKETBALL HEADLINES
  • Update: Kris Humphries ruled out on Wednesday   
  • Nene might not be 100 percent until next year   
  • Kevin Garnett expected back on Wednesday   
  • Isaiah Thomas blows up for 20 points in 3rd Q   
  • Tim Duncan, Tony Parker out for Spurs   
  • Andray Blatche expected back soon after break   
  • Nikola Pekovic 'doubtful' for Wednesday   
  • With the All Star break right around the corner and a surprising amount of position battle action on a five-game night, there’s actually some news to report.  Let’s jump right in. 

     

    To get your fantasy information in real-time, click here to follow me on Twitter.

     

    And for an in-depth analysis of Isaiah Thomas after his big night, jump to Page 3

     

    ATTACK OF THE ROOKIE POINT GUARDS

     

    Kyrie Irving and Brandon Knight put on a show last night, finishing in the order they were drafted, with Irving’s 25 points, five rebounds, and eight assists besting Knight’s 24 points, five rebounds, and three assists.  Irving hit three triples to go with two steals and two blocks, while Knight hit four 3-pointers that weren’t enough as the Cavs prevailed.  Irving is already a bonafide future star, but there has been a surprising amount of apprehension from Knight’s owners this year.  I do not see how he can be dropped given his obvious talent and near-perfect roster situation in Detroit. 

     

    Antawn Jamison put his middle-aged game to work with 32 points, 10 boards, and three treys, and I have no problem with selling him high.  Don’t go out of your way to do it, but with injury risks, trade possibilities, and the pressure to play young guys eventually there are a few reasons to actively market your potential risk.  Daniel Gibson (ankle) returned last night, scoring eight points on 2-of-6 shooting (2-of-5 from deep) with an interesting four rebounds, three assists, one steal, and three blocks.  If he’s not worth an add, he’s worth watching closely. 

     

    Alonzo Gee took a shot to the nose but came back ticking with 16 points, 11 boards, two steals, and a three, and he very well could be biggest beneficiary of Anderson Varejao’s injury.  He has slumped a bit at times recently, but he’s still putting up late round value over the last two weeks and he has room to grow.  Having Byron Scott in his corner doesn’t hurt, either.  Tristan Thompson (0-for-5 FGs, zero points, seven boards, 20 minutes) and Semih Erden (five points, three boards, 15 minutes, cut over eye) aren’t meshing in Scott’s system right now, and the only good news for Thompson&rsquo! ;s fantasy prospects is that he’s supposedly still dealing with his ankle injury.  My guess is that the light switch is still off for both guys, and the first one to turn it on gets all the minutes and touches.  Let’s just hope it’s Thompson, who has all the upside, but is also a liability at the foul line. 

     

    Greg Monroe torched the Cavs down low with one of his best nights of the year, scoring 19 points with 11 rebounds, a career-high seven assists, three steals, and one block.  He’s a guy to hold and target.  Ben Gordon (16 points, four rebounds, two threes) is still producing since his return from a shoulder injury, and with just one four-point dud in the prior game he’s worth a look in 8-cat formats.  I’m not ready to call the “multiple tears” in his shoulder magically healthy, nor do I want to rule out that the aforementioned was an overzealous report.  Let’s just leave it as a slowly lowering red flag and go from there. 

     

    I’M GONNA JACK YOU UP

     

    Greivis Vasquez drew another start last night, which made his owners want to party like it was Fat Tuesday, but once again Jarrett Jack tallied a win in the position battle with 19 points, five rebounds, 10 assists, and two 3-pointers.  Jack played most of the second half in place of Vasquez, who finished with a respectable nine points, three rebounds, seven assists, and a single 3-pointer in 21 minutes.  Vasquez made a handful of early mistakes, and with Monty Williams still seeking wins and not development he turned to the vet. 

     

    It’s anybody’s guess what Monty is going to do going forward, but because Vasquez has the size to play shooting guard it does make some sense that he comes off the bench to backup both guard slots.  My guess is that Vasquez’s value takes a hit over the next 2-3 weeks, perhaps causing owners to jump ship, but I like his upside down the stretch as much as anybody’s and I’ll be stashing.  In his last 11 games, he has averaged 12.5 points, 1.1 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.0 blocks, 2.7 turnovers, and a 45.7 percent mark from the field and 83.3 percent mark from the line in 31.1 minutes.  That’s good for top-60 value in 9-cat leagues and top-48 value in 8-cat leagues.  Get some. 

     

    Jack on the other hand is a sell-high guy for the rest of the year, as long as you can get an offer within a round of his value that’s heading in the right direction.  On the year Jack has posted eighth and ninth round value in 8- and 9-cat leagues, respectively, with those marks coming in 34.8 minutes per game.  If he were to somehow continue that value it could be seen as a win, given his knee and Vasquez’s presence, so owners will want to highlight the popcorn-stats he puts up and work to make a trade happen. 

     

    Emeka Okafor (knee) sounds like he’s nearing a return after the All Star break, and while he has been a frustrating guy to carry he’s probably worth owning with this report.  Those starting Gustavo Ayon weren’t thrilled with his second-straight low-show, with just nine points on 4-of-7 shooting, four rebounds, two assists, and no steals or blocks in 27 foul-plagued minutes.  Owners probably should let him finish out the week, as a good showing tonight could earn him another week or so after the break to impress, even with Okafor back. 

     

    Marco Belinelli has now scored in double-figures in eight straight games with 18 triples over that span, which is going to be good for low-end value in your 8- or 9-cat, 12-team league.  With Eric Gordon (knee) out for a very long-time, he looks like a good addition for a fantasy squad needing help with the long ball.  If you do add him, try not to ride the roller coaster and allow for the peaks and valleys that a shooter has to work themselves out. 

     

    JRUE IT NOW

     

    Jrue Holiday opened up a pretty big buy low window over the past two weeks, playing backup distributor to Andre Iguodala and generally disappointing those that took him with a late-early round draft pick or thereabouts.  Sensing that Holiday’s confidence could be eroding without the ball in his hands as much, Doug Collins has been pushing for him to become a scorer, and he obliged last night with 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting (including four threes).  He added five rebounds and four assists, and if I had to bet he’ll finish the year out strongly.  And if his play doesn’t do it, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iguodala’s age and amazingly quiet knee/Achilles’ combo starts acting up.  Give Iggy credit, as he hasn’t shown any signs of wear.  But w! ith the Sixers currently leading their division by four games, in the midst of a condensed season, some rest and relaxed job duties aren’t all that far-fetched. 

     

    Elton Brand (thumb) is out through the break, which isn’t terribly surprising.  Nikola Vucevic (14 minutes, two points, one board) was outplayed by Lavoy Allen (14 points, five boards, one steal, two blocks, 29 minutes) last night, but it’s a toss-up right now which guy will step up in Brand’s absence.  Andres Nocioni started in his place but lasted just six minutes on the court.  Thaddeus Young was good but not great with eight points on 3-of-11 shooting to go with seven boards, one steal, and two blocks, and the group of Y! oung, Lou Williams (eight points, 2-of-13 FGs), and Evan Turner (three points, 26 minutes) might each absorb the benefit of Brand’s absence equally. 

     

    COLLISION COURSE

     

    I believe about zero percent of the report about George Hill challenging for the starting jobs of Darren Collison and Paul George.  For one, the writer has been jocking Hill all year long, and second, Hill has done nothing to distinguish himself.  This sounds like everyday coach-speak, with the writer getting a chance to cover his bum for a prediction gone wrong.  Collison is getting back on track and scored 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting last night with eight rebounds and six assists, and though I’m not taking that particular report at face value, it would be crazy to suggest that Hill’s return isn’t at least a small threat.  Plan accordingly. 

     

    George hit 9-of-20 shots and two more triples for 20 points, six boards, six assists, and two steals, and he’s literally a poor man’s Kevin Durant.  Hold and target, maim if you have to.  Roy Hibbert went off for a career-high 30 points with 13 boards and three blocks, and is quietly posting solid mid-round value. 

     

    IT’S ALL IN THE WRIST

     

    Drew Gooden’s injured shooting wrist is a very real risk, mostly because he has been dealing with the issue all year and it finally caused him to take a break.  He went to get a second opinion yesterday, too, which is often the kiss of death in the injury world.  My take here is fairly pragmatic, which is to say that owners need to do everything they can to hold him through the All Star break.  With nearly two weeks of rest under his belt, if he cannot come back to a full set of minutes it will be telling, nonetheless.  And as we’ve noted many times, the injury reporting in Milwaukee is slim to put it nicely.  But with all of that said, if you come across an Isaiah Thomas-like decision from last Sunday night – the upside justifies the drop, whereas the pickup of a l! ow-end producer (e.g. Chandler Parsons) would not.

     

    TENDON TALK

     

    Joe Johnson (patella tendonitis) flew back to Atlanta and the AP has reported that he will be out through “at least” the All Star break, with the key information being that he was not healthy enough to return in Monday’s game.  I’m not nearly as freaked out about the MRI considering the timing of the All Star break, but in general the prognosis here is rest, with immobilization of the knee for 3-6 weeks being the absolute worst-case scenario.  Surgery is only performed if there is a full tear in most cases, but we would have known about that right away.  Larry Drew has said he expects no issues with the knee, but coaches tend to stay optimistic until doctors or trainers give them a reason not to be.  I’m not trying to create a panic here, because I do believe there’s a strong chance the injury isn’t serious – but it’s ! definitely time to hunt for clues. 

     

    UDOH MENUDO

     

    Ekpe Udoh is still in play as the possible starting center in Golden State, as Mark Jackson said he was still contemplating the decision as of yesterday.  Udoh’s knee injury is not thought to be serious, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson or the Warriors opt for Udoh to be fully healthy before naming him the starter.  Along those lines, beat writer Marcus Thompson predicted that Andris Biedrins will be the starter tonight.  Following Monday's game, in the Season Pass, I said that 12-team owners with a need for blocks or a big man should be making the add here, with everybody else taking a wait-and-see approach! .  The Warriors simply can’t give him big-time minutes in an undersized frontcourt, unless (crossing fingers) they decide to run like the wind.  Biedrins (flu) participated in a light workout on Tuesday and, who knows, maybe this kicks his butt into gear.  I’m not holding my breath until he starts shooting his freebies underhand, though. 

     

    WHERE THE BEER FLOWS LIKE WINE

     

    Danilo Gallinari (ankle) said that he is targeting a return shortly after the All Star break, which is great news for owners after a sparsely mentioned overseas report quoted him as saying he’d be out at least a month.  I wouldn’t roll out the Mission Accomplished banner just yet, but the fear of the words “at least” can probably be put to rest.  This dampens a bit of the fun with Wilson Chandler, who I’ve added across the board for the most part, but keep in mind that the assumption when adding him needed to assume ‘life with Gallo.’  It’s also a sell-high indicator for owners of Al Harrington, Arron Afflalo, and Andre Miller.  Chandler didn’t sound worried about getting a contract signed next week, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he suited up in the first or second game after the break. 

     

    Ty Lawson is listed as day-to-day and is a candidate to be sat through the All Star break, especially since his left ankle injury has been ongoing.  Andre Miller is a must-start player for however long Lawson is out.  Nene (calf) might play in one of the Nuggets’ next two games, but owners need to take that sentiment with a grain of salt at this time of year.  They should be more worried about the report that he might not be healthy enough to play starter’s minutes this year, though I want to see how that story develops before putting a ton of stock into it.  And even if it’s true, 25-30 minutes might be the sweet spot for him staying healthy and productive, albeit at a lower rate than owners wanted.  Kenneth Faried probably has the rest of the week to put up numbers as a spot-play, but banking on anything beyond that is much too risky even with Nene’s health a question mark. 

     

    THREE TIMES AND IT’S A PATTERN

     

    As mentioned the Spurs/Blazers game was a joke, with a hungry, brow-beaten Blazers team drawing the starting lineup of Cory Joseph, Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and DeJuan Blair.  We’re guessing that Tony Parker and Tim Duncan return for Thursday’s game, but regardless the fantasy takeaways on the Spurs’ side last night are easy – there are none. 

     

    The Portland side gets a bit more complicated when you consider the shakeup at the PG position, with Jamal Crawford getting his first start in what Nate McMillan coined a “temporary decision.”  Owners are going to have to be super vigilant here with their understanding of the Portland media and the situation in general.  Raymond Felton has been standoffish with the press, in particular the Oregonian, while good-guy Jamal Crawford has charmed in general, and I don’t have to tell you which outlet is pushing hard against Felton.  Set this against the backdrop of Felton’s bad play and his loss of confide! nce, and it’s a mess for fantasy owners.  We even reported yesterday morning that the decision had a “permanent feel,” which was categorically wrong and a byproduct of all of the confusion.  Both before and after the game there were multiple references by each of the involved parties suggesting that the move is far from permanent, so hopefully we get that straightened out in the blurbs today. 

     

    So here’s what we know.  Crawford is an electric player and had a huge night with 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting, five threes, four rebounds, and eight assists, but he’s a ball-stopper on offense and a turnstile on defense.  Is he capable of running the point in spurts?  Sure.  But the Blazers aren’t making noise in the playoffs with Crawford at the one, and if Nate McMillan felt any other way he wouldn’t have waited for Felton to fall all the way down the cliff before benching him.  But before we bag on Felton too much, he had a nice night, too, showing once again that he’s a capable player with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting, four triples, and four assists in just 21 minutes.  He’s going to go to Vegas to clear his mind, so expect pundits to chase the low-hanging fruit there (and hey why not), but the real issue to me is the ! Nate McMillan show.  Whether it was Andre Miller vs. Steve Blake, or Miller vs. McMillan, or managing a Brandon Roy-in-decline, Sergio Rodriguez, you name it – guys seem to be too wound up, not wound up enough, and for all the credit that McMillan gets (even by yours truly early this year), he sure does have a lot of problems coaching.  My guess is that every problem the Blazers have right now is right in-between the ears, and one way or another that will get worked out – or somebody will have to go.  If it does get worked out, the who! le lot of them will have fantasy value.  On a side note, Wesley Matthews injured his left ankle and it’s not believed to be serious.

     

    MR. RELEVANT

     

    By now I’ve had time to swallow my pride with the acquisition of Kawhi Leonard in my 12-team, 16-player per team big money league, as I spent $225 of $1,000 FAAB dollars on him in our weekly waiver format about a month back.  I shirked Gregg Popovich’s hatred toward fantasy owners for a chance at Leonard’s upside, which coincidentally enough was highlighted last night as he scored a career-high 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting with 10 rebounds, five steals, and a block.  And while the result isn’t actionable for owners, it did give me some indication that I wasn’t totally off my rocker. 

     

    But rather than talk about that game, I’m taking my talents to South Beach where my most recent shot-in-the-dark FAAB play was starting at point guard for the Kings.  That’s right, Mr. Irrelevant, the allegedly 5’9” Isaiah Thomas was quite a conundrum for me and my remaining $360 budget on Sunday night.  The good news was that I still had the fourth-highest budget in the league, and being dead-last in assists I needed to take a shot at a playcaller to keep from punting the category going forward.  When waiver requests were due, Thomas had two good games under his belt but no confirmation on the starting job, and with Keith Smart adamant about Tyreke Evans being the team’s point guard – I took the shot with a $191 bid, hoping and fearing that the No. 60 ove! rall pick was going to be on my roster come Monday. 

     

    Thomas took a back seat to his teammates with not much to show on the stat sheet in the first half, but he erupted for a 20-point third quarter and finished with a career-high 24 points, three rebounds, five assists, five 3-point shots, and just two turnovers.  The Kings have not had less than 20 assists as a team in each of his three starts, and while Keith Smart isn’t going to stop using Evans as the primary ball-handler, we’re already seeing his role change.  He’s running off of screens now and slowly learning other aspects of the game, but admittedly it’s going to be a work in progress. 

     

    Thomas, on the other hand, is being used early in the shot clock to get the team into their sets, and then secondarily as a ‘second half of the shot clock’ creator when plays break down.  The rest of Thomas’ offense is coming as a main cog of the transition attack, but also because he has a nose for the ball and, simply enough, because he knows where to stand on the court.  An opportunistic player, he has impressed onlookers nearly every time he has taken the court, which I say knowing full-well he hasn’t pitched a perfect game on the hardwood.  But damn, the kid can play. 

     

    So, if he’s still available in your league, or if you’re just wanting to get a sense for how he will do going forward – it comes down to this.  If given the minutes, I have no question that he will put up must-start numbers for your fantasy squad.  He has posted mid-round value in just 26 minutes per game over his last seven contests, averaging 13.6 points, 1.7 threes, 3.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 47.8% FGs, 85% FTs (on 9.9 attempts/game), and a squeaky clean 1.3 turnovers.  If you look at just his last four games, he returns late second round value in 9-cat leagues and actually loses some value in 8-cat leagues because he has only coughed up the ball seven times.  Is he likely to keep averaging 18.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in the 32-minute role he carved out over that four-game span?  Probably not, but I can’t say that with certainty amidst talk that Smart is going to shorten! his rotation, continue to start Thomas, and with no clear villain to his value. 

     

    Evans still went off for 21 points, seven rebounds, and 10 assists last night, and though he took a few

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