Linsanity - 02/09/2012
BY Aaron Bruski I could have headlined this article with any number of the Jeremy Lin puns that I saw last night, but Linsanity is the only real way to describe the phenomena. I’m not going to pigeon-hole him into any Tim Tebow-like comparisons, because I’m sure Skip Bayless will do it for all of us later, but I will say that I’m actually looking forward to the hype. Lin has always come across as a humble kid that worked hard and never got a chance. What’s not to like about that? He put up 23 points on 9-of-14 shooting with a career-high 10 assists, a steal, a block, and one nice crossover on John Wall that finished in a dunk. If you want to predict that he will be the waiver wire pickup of the year I’m not going to argue with you, and if you want to sell-high I’m not going to argue with you. It’s hard to go wrong selling a guy during a fever pitch, and it’s conceivable we’re looking at Lin’s ceiling with Carmelo Anthony (groin) and Amare Stoudemire (personal) out. But watching Lin direct world champion and All Star candidate Tyson Chandler during a break in play last night, it’s clear the kid has what it takes to manage the New York Knicks. It’s also clear that, as Doc pointed out on Twitter last night, that hundreds of talent evaluators in the NBA got it wrong here. My! Warriors regularly barf all over themselves in this area, and to think they could have depended on Lin while trading one of their small guards for a small bounty is sickening. More to the point, Lin has a game that lends itself to understated leadership, and that’s what owners will want to key on when Anthony returns, specifically. Make no mistake, if it’s not Jeremy Lin’s town already, it will be very soon unless Melo decides to hop on the bandwagon and play nice. If the Knicks lose with Melo back in tow, everybody and their mother will buy tickets for him out of town and calls to play with the ball in Lin’s hands will be deafening. The fact that Lin is a humble guy will help Melo live in his new reality – and that bodes well for the entire group. The best thing the Knicks can do is stick Anthony in the pick-and-roll with Lin on Day 1 and then on Day 2 and let them figure it out. Ditto Amare. Their return could signal a decline in Lin’s fantasy value, but if the Knicks build around Lin’! s strengths and get their two other superstars going toward the hoop it could be a fantasy bonanza, too. I said I wouldn’t kill you for selling high, and if you’re into that sort of thing consider his averages of 25.3 points, 3.7 boards, 8.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 treys, 0.3 blocks, 3.7 turnovers and 58% field goal shooting in 38 minutes per game in his last three contests – good for second round value in 9-cat leagues on a per-game basis. Looking forward, go ahead and slide the minutes down but not too much, knock his counting stats down if you like as he loses touches, and bring his shooting percentage back into Earth’s atmosphere. After I’ve done that I’m not willing to predict a drop-off below early mid-round value. So that’s my floor on a deal. And I’d be looking to get a fourth rounder at worst with the very real chance that Lin stays healthy and productive under Mike D’Antoni’s guidance. Yes, I have Jeremy Lin fever. And the only cure for it is more of it. To get an edge on your competition with real-time fantasy updates and information, follow me on Twitter right here. YOUNG COACH SYNDROME The best thing about this game was Will Ferrell announcing the starting lineups. Jarrett Jack (knee) was a late entrant to the starting lineup, sending Greivis Vasquez to the bench and maybe to the waiver wire in your league. Jack scored four points on 2-of-11 shooting with two rebounds and three assists in 28 minutes against a tough Bulls squad, and if we had to project things today we’d have to guess that Jack would be the starter 10 days from now. But really, it’s Monty Williams’ world and we’re all just getting jerked around in it. He! refused to tell anybody who he was starting until well after Jack had finished in the layup line, and as Adam Levitan put it simply on Twitter, “they’re 4-22.” Maybe it’s time to lay off the caffeine, Monty. Vasquez, meanwhile, was rewarded for helping to carry the Hornets over the last week with 20 bench minutes, and finished with five points on 2-of-7 shooting, three rebounds, and four assists. Unless you have a sure-fire free agent on your radar I’d advise owners to exercise patience, but the leash here is going to be short with Monty exercising young coach syndrome. A-FOYE MATEY! Randy Foye debuted at shooting guard following Chauncey Billups’ season-ending Achilles’ injury, and predictably scored 15 points with two assists, a steal, and three triples in 28 minutes. Not trying to be that guy, but this is exactly what I pictured when Billups hit the floor. Foye tends to consistently post these numbers in this role. Congratulations if you aggressively made the add. Mo Williams hit just 2-of-10 shots for five points with three assists and two steals, and might have been pressing against his old Cavs squad. If somebody in your league wants to panic about it, by all means go out of your way to be a good citizen and help them out. DeAndre Jordan might also be causing a panic with his recent knee soreness, and his zero shot attempts with four boards and two blocks last night aren’t helping. The good news for owners is that Jordan’s garbage-man game wasn’t a good fit against Anderson Varejao and it’s not like four rebounds is extremely out of character for him. I’m still preaching patience here and this could be a sneaky buy-low chance, with sneaky being the operative word. If he does it again we’ll hoist the red flag. TWO DOWN, ZERO TO GO The last time we checked on Blake Griffin he was blocking shots at a 2.4 per game clip over five contests, and I noted how the two-category punting play was morphing into a one-category punting play with free throws being the final blemish. Since then, Griffin decided to borrow Chauncey Billups’ pre-shot routine at the foul line, dribbling three times instead of just hoisting up the shot. And wouldn’t you know he has now hit 15-of-17 shots from the foul line over his last two games. He also posted a tidy 25 points, 15 rebounds, one steal, but didn’t have a block. That’s okay because it was his first game without a block in seven games, and including the eighth game last night he’s averaging 1.75 blocks per game. Back to the freebies, I’ve! experienced it and seen it countless times – a player tweaks their shooting motion and gets instant results – only to fall back into prior patterns and show little-to-no improvement. Regardless, if there is a time to move on Griffin it will be sometime this week after a slow night. A ten percent increase from the charity stripe would catapult him up the charts. THE DAY AFTER DANILO Arron Afflalo slid over to small forward and had a quiet night with 12 points on 4-of-12 shooting with two threes, two steals and not much else. Rudy Fernandez scored 17 points off the bench on 6-of-9 shooting (including two threes) with three rebounds and a steal in 29 minutes, and as I mentioned yesterday looks like the better pickup of the two. Chris Anderson drew a start at center and played 14 minutes with two points, two boards, and two blocks, which may have satisfied owners looking for the latter category in a spot-start. Use the Birdman at your own risk. CAVS REPORT Kyrie Irving was a late, late-scratch yesterday after a concussion suffered in the fourth quarter of Tuesday’s game rendered him unable to go, and in stepped trade candidate Ramon Sessions with a career-night including 24 points, 13 assists, a steal, a block, and two threes on 9-of-16 shooting. Sessions is an interesting asset right now as the Cavs will ride him hard in preparation to move him, but his fantasy value will be entirely dependent upon where he lands if he’s moved. He shouldn’t be on any wires, but I’d tend to peg him as a sell high guy while there is some hopeful wonder out there that he will land as an unchallenged starter somewhere. Daniel Gibson (neck) returned and jumped right into the Cavs’ starting lineup, and responded with 17 points, a steal, two blocks, and two 3-pointers in 35 minutes. The neck injury doesn’t sound too concerning, and Boobie is the Cavs’ best perimeter defender. He’s going to get minutes, but I can’t see calling him a must-add player in 8/9 cat, 12-team leagues just yet. He’s a better fit as a short-term add while guys are out with a decent amount of upside. Rounding out the Cavs report, Alonzo Gee played 32 minutes but struggled to hit 2-of-8 shots for seven points, three boards, three assists, and three turnovers. I don’t think you drop him after one bad effort but he has a 1-2 game leash for owners in the aforementioned formats. LAST NIGHT’S INJURIES Kyle Lowry left last night’s game after suffering a hyperextended right (shooting) elbow, and was said to be in pain and his status for Thursday’s game is very questionable. If you added Goran Dragic upon learning the news it’s worth holding him for the update, but it appears Lowry avoided serious damage. And if the tenor of the injury news continues to trend toward ‘minor,’ it’s also a good time to buy low on Lowry. Jerryd Bayless’ ankle injury was a mild gut-punch last night since I have him everywhere, but truthfully I had mentally prepared for it and I’m not too bothered by it in the long-run. Bayless takes it to the edge a la Stephen Curry, and it’s Dwane Casey’s job to make sure his player doesn’t overdo things for a team playing for ping pong balls. Leandro Barbosa played himself off of fantasy rosters over the past week or so, and had a nice line in just 14 minutes with 11 points and a three. Look for him to return to his scoring ways with Bayless possibly (probably) missing some time. Anderson Varejao took a rough fall, landing on his head and back but it appears he avoided a concussion. He briefly left the game and finished with 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting, 11 rebounds, three assists, and a block. He gets an off-day on Thursday and there will be plenty of time to figure out his status in advance of Friday’s game. Derrick Rose (back) didn’t get injured and he played as a game-time decision, but he seemed limited with just six points on 3-of-5 shooting with five rebounds and six assists in 22 minutes. The Bulls crushed the Hornets, and while there are some signs that Tom Thibodeau is starting to learn not to run his players into the ground – I’m not buying it just yet. Rose gets the Bobcats on Friday and it’s another opportunity to rest, but owners have to be a little concerned that Thibs’ players are willing to run through brick walls in games against ping pong ball talent. Mario Chalmers (hand) was a surprise scratch when it was announced he would need an MRI after getting his left (non-shooting) hand caught in a jersey in Tuesday’s game. It didn’t seem serious at the time but it swelled up and we’ll have to see what results come back. Norris Cole started and scored nine points on 4-of-8 shooting with four assists and a 3-pointer in 31 minutes. Cole might have been figured out by defenses, or simply fell off after getting shot out of a cannon to start the year, but he shouldn’t be considered for anything but a spot-play unless Chalmers is to miss significant time. Tony Allen (hip, knee) did not play and Quincy Pondexter scored a career-high 17 points, which gets filed into the fluke folder until he does it again. While we’re in Memphis, Zach Randolph was spotted putting up jumpers at shootaround but there is no real update on his timetable. I’d venture to guess that he’s on schedule right now and stashing him is a pretty good idea, especially in weekly, playoff formats. Jason Terry’s (five points, five assists, 1-of-9 FGs) hip injury flew under the radar last night, but it caused him to leave the game late and his status for Friday’s game is questionable. Vince Carter scored 17 points with five boards, eight assists, two steals, and a block, and could be worth a look as a low-end, short-term pickup while Terry gets right – if he even needs to get right. Jason Kidd (calf) did not play and the Mavs are going to play it safe. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about whether or not to add Kidd and the short answer is ‘yes.’ We’ve seen his floor and the only way he can go is up, which could end up being a nice place for a waiver wire ! pickup in 8- and 9-cat leagues. Ersan Ilyasova was given the alcohol/antacid add recommendation in this space yesterday after a nice line on Tuesday, and promptly missed last night’s game due to back spasms. Providing late-round value since moving to the bench, it’s safe for owners to give him a pass but he’s still not a must-own player given who he plays for. THE GOOD Tony Parker lit up the Sixers last night with 37 points on 12-of-24 shooting (13-of-13 from the foul line) with eight assists, a steal, and a block, and yes this is the perfect time to sell-high to an unsuspecting owner with Manu Ginobili (hand) looking like a go on Saturday. Gary Neal scored 18 points on a perfect 4-of-4 shooting mark behind the arc and also chipped in with five boards and six assists. With Ginobili returning that’s not enough for an add in 12-14 team formats given the inconsistency he’s shown in the past. Ryan Anderson got hot and scored 27 points with five triples and 11 rebounds. He’s providing early round value and unless there is a philosophy change in Orlando, it will take an injury to slow him down. He’s a guy to hold and target. Carlos Delfino finally broke out with six 3-point buckets on his way to a season-high 25 points, and season-highs in rebounds (nine) and steals (four) in 34 minutes against the sieves in Toronto. Scott Skiles doesn’t know who he is playing nightly, so I wouldn’t expect anybody else out there to know, either. I’m calling Delfino an upside stash for the event he can prove his consistency, but if you’re counting on him to back it up on Friday against the Cavs (who struggle defensively) – you’re still doing it at your own risk. Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy both played well, too, with Jackson scoring 17 points with a full stat line in 33 minutes and Dunleavy putting up! 18 points in 32 minutes. Look at Dunleavy if you’re desperate and hunting spot-help, and Jackson is worth consideration for your lineup now. When asked if he wants to play in Milwaukee he said he’d get fined if he answered that question. You know where that’s heading. James Johnson gave owners droppers’ remorse with 15 points on 7-of-11 shooting, seven boards, two steals, three blocks, and a three in 30 minutes. If you ask me whether or not you should dump him I’m going to tell you not to until he falls off a cliff. His upside is tremendous. Landry Fields scored 16 points with eight boards, two assists, and a steal last night, and Iman Shumpert scored 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting (including a three) with four rebounds and three steals in 37 minutes off the bench. I mentioned this yesterday I believe, but the pair should both be owned well into the time that Carmelo Anthony (groin) and Amare Stoudemire (personal) return. There could be an adjustment period as the two superstars figure out how to play off of Lin, but I’m guessing Lin is the rising tide to lift all boats. Both Fields and Shumpert will now have clear-cut roles and I’m predicting ! they both hold late-round value throughout the rest of the year in 8- and 9-cat formats. And Fields – he and Lin are buddies and debuted their nerd-alert handshake last night. I’m only semi-kidding when I say there’s value there. As for Tyson Chandler, he scored 25 points with 11 boards, a steal, and a block and Lin’s arrival is just as good for him as anybody else. They better get the rims screwed on tight at MSG. Josh Smith scored 28 points with 12 boards, three assists, five steals, and three blocks in a whopping 46 minutes. He’s slowly climbing back up to his draft day cost, posting third round value in 8-cat leagues and fourth round value in 9-cat leagues on a per-game basis. Trevor Booker kept up his solid play with 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting and seven boards. Nothing I have seen has deterred me from calling Booker a must-own player in 12-team leagues over the next few weeks. Once Andray Blatche (shoulder) returns he’ll probably be a borderline value, but his insane athleticism and developing game give him some hope of keeping things up. On a side note, Booker limped a bit at one point last night but I’ve heard nothing about it – just keep an eye on it. Jonas Jerebko scored 16 points off the bench last night with seven boards, two steals, and two blocks in 35 minutes, and while we’ve seen this movie all year long, he’ll be worth a look in 12-team formats and is a must-add player in 14-team formats. In the latter leagues, his inconsistency averages out to decent late-round value. Chris Kaman played well again as the Hornets continue to showcase him for trade, scoring 17 points on 6-of-17 shooting with nine rebounds and three blocks. He’s worth a pickup if you need a big man, and might be worth a pickup anyway with the way the Hornets will likely ride him. THE BAD Hedo Turkoglu hit just 1-of-6 shots for three points and was eaten up by the Heat. His 3-of-23 shooting slump over the past three games has owners panicking, but his body of work this year is too good to cut. Jeff Teague played 25 foul-plagued minutes last night, scoring just five points with five boards and four assists, and Kirk Hinrich scored 17 points off the bench. Teague would have to regress badly to lose his starter’s minutes, and if we’re quantifying it, I think I said I was ‘five percent’ concerned two weeks ago and I’m ‘ten percent’ concerned today. Nick Young hit 3-of-11 shots for seven points and Jordan Crawford hit 2-of-10 shots for seven points, and this is their first foray off the path they had chosen over the last two weeks. Young has been worth starting and Crawford has been a stronger add in 12-team formats that don’t penalize turnovers. Don’t let one game move the needle too much here. Paul George hit just 1-of-8 shots for five points and not much else, and if you drop and/or move him I will send you a sternly worded letter. Kevin Martin was benched after playing just 15 minutes, scoring four points on 2-of-5 shooting with two rebounds and two assists, and with no report of an injury it begs the question of what is going on in Houston. Whether it’s Kevin McHale’s fault or the players’ faults, the changing rotations and benchings are cause for some sort of concern. Samuel Dalembert scored just two points with three boards, two assists, a steal, and a block in 18 minutes, which actually represents an improvement over the past week. That they beat the Blazers last night means that McHale will be emboldened by the decisions, but often times a win in these cases will be followed by a return to playing the starters. It’s guesswork and it would be hard to pull Martin from lineups with! out an injury to report, while I still can’t imagine dumping Dalembert. Outside of acquiring Chris Kaman |
