Montazuma's Revenge - 02/08/2012
BY Aaron Bruski After a record-breaking day for news and just about everything else on Monday, last night was thankfully light. Folks talk about the players suffering from the lockout, but in the nobody cares department NBA writers have been put through the ringer after an endless (and busy) offseason of non-news news stories. That was followed by a three-week preseason that included four months’ worth of news, and fast-forward to today the action comes in flurries and it doesn’t really stop. I said before the season that the experienced and aggressive fantasy owner would clean up in this cornucopia of basketball hysteria, but what I failed to mention is that we all might go crazy in the process. And my guess is that next year when the action slows down we’ll miss every second of it. To be the guy in your league that nabs the Jeremy Lins and Nikola Pekovics of the Association, click here to follow me on Twitter. FANTASY JACKPOT The Thunder visited the Warriors in one of the better games of the year, and like when the Patriots and Saints get together there will be a number of fantasy matchups won on the strength of this game. Monta Ellis scored a career-high 48 points on a ridiculous 18-of-29 shooting (including three treys) with seven rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block, Stephen Curry hit 7-of-9 shots for 16 points with seven boards, 10 assists, two steals, and a three, and David Lee became the first Warriors PF since Chris Webber to triple-double with 25 points, 11 boards, 10 assists, and one block for good measure. Not to be outdone, Kevin Durant had 33 points, 10 boards, seven assists, a steal, a block, and two threes, while Russell Westbrook had 31 points on 12-of-21 shooting with seven assists, two steals, a block, and a three. Westbrook also had nine turnovers, which is what happens when you tell a 23-year old shooting guard playing point guard to attack relentlessly, but also to play like Scott Skiles would. James Harden scored 19 points with a full stat line, and Daequan Cook hit 6-of-8 shots for a season-high 17 points with five 3-pointers and three rebounds in Thabo Sefolosha’s (foot) absence. I’m not too worried about Serge Ibaka’s 27-minute, seven-point, six-board, blockless night. He got wrecked on Ellis’ late-game and-one, but jumping on him for that would be like saying Kendrick Perkins was a difference-maker on a night his man scored 39 points. I mean, who does that? THE GOOD Darren Collison hit 10-of-14 shots for a season-high 25 points with four rebounds and five assists, and yes, now is the time to move him while the going is good. I’m not scared about George Hill stealing his job when he returns, but he’s a near-lock to cut into Collison’s value a little bit and gives Frank Vogel somebody to turn to if DC hits the skids. Paul Silas did everything he could to publicize Reggie Williams for fantasy owners, and Williams is still floating around some 12-team leagues after a 21-point night that included three rebounds, five assists, and two 3-point shots. Yes, he has threats in the form of D.J. Augustin (toe), Gerald Henderson (hamstring) and Corey Maggette (hamstring), but only Augustin is close to returning and Williams fits the mold of Charlotte’s game plan going forward. And given how much Silas loves him, fantasy owners should, too. Steve Nash (18 points, 11 assists) hit a game-winning layup on his 38th birthday and that has to be an NBA record. He’s paying off owners that stayed faithful after his slow start. Jared Dudley scored 19 points with four boards, three assists, and three treys, and looks to have turned the corner after a rocky start, too. Drew Gooden got back in owners’ good graces with a season-high 25 points and a block, though he only had four rebounds. He’s about as stable as one can get in Scott Skiles’ rotations and is a must-own player until further notice. Nikola Pekovic started for injured/ineffective Darko Milicic (ankle), scoring 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting with 10 rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. Kevin Love (suspension) was out, but Pekovic should really be sending Ricky Rubio portions of his meager paycheck. Easy buckets and putbacks will keep Pekovic putting up solid numbers all year, and only Craig “Nasty Nate” Smith would scare me more if an NBA player was chasing me. Michael Be! asley scored 17 points with 14 boards with Love out and this definitely qualifies as a sell-high moment. I don’t doubt that Beasley will have his moments this season, with ‘moments’ being the operative word. BUCK SHOTS I’ve been driving the sell-high bandwagon on Brandon Jennings around here for three reasons. First, his now 43.1 percent field goal shooting has already reverted back toward his 38.7 percent career average and I expect it to continue. Second, he has a nice backup PG playing behind him in Beno Udrih. Third, Scott Skiles has no problem putting the youngster in check. Let’s add a fourth reason. Jennings reportedly criticized Scott Skiles, albeit in an indirect manner, but he wanted Stephen Jackson on the court and not on the bench last Saturday. This news hit the wire yesterday, and later in the evening Jennings went 1-for-4 for three points in an uninspiring effort. Beno Udrih played 19 minutes and scored six points on 3-of-6 shooting with three rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Owners need to hope this is a blip on the radar and he comes back with a big game on Wednesday against horrible defender Jose Calderon. If you’re looking fo! r reasons to sell the precocious Jennings after he gets back on track, there are four of them. While we’re making love to Milwaukee, Stephen Jackson (12 points, two rebounds, four assists, two threes) finally got back on the court and played 30 minutes. I started him last week and benched him this week, fully ignoring my gut-instinct that he was going to get back on the court. Though it felt like Skiles couldn’t bench him further without incurring damage from both inside and outside of his house, donuts don’t work so well for me. There is no analysis that anybody can provide here outside of Skiles telling us that Jackson will play this much going forward, and even then there are no sure bets. I think you have to hold him in most cases for the chance he gets traded and provides value in the meantime, but in shallow formats it’s another story. I’m buying Ersan Ilyasova’s overall value proposition to owners in 12-team leagues and he had another 17 points, 12 boards, two blocks, and a three last night, but owners will want to make the add with a side of whiskey or Maalox, or both. I’m selling Mike Dunleavy’s 17 points and four treys unless you’re looking for spot help. LARRY, YOU HAVE PAUL ON LINE TWO Paul Pierce scored 15 points with eight boards, nine assists, and two threes last night as he passed Larry Bird to become No. 2 on the Celtics’ all-time scoring list. It’s an incredible honor and Pierce will be a lock for the Hall of Fame, but allow me to rain on his parade by telling owners to sell-high. The days of offense running mostly through him will be over once Rajon Rondo (wrist) is right. ALL WE NEED IS A LITTLE PATIENCE Bismack Biyombo was announced as the starting center for last night’s game and has been added in a bunch of leagues, but managed just three points, two boards, and no blocks in 22 minutes against the Celtics. I’ve held Biyombo all year in my deeper 12-team, big money league and managed to add him in a few others, and I’ll tell you guys what I’m telling myself – cut him if you must but otherwise ride the waves. It’s hard to imagine a better scenario than he has in Charlotte. GEE WHIZ Alonzo Gee started at small forward last night and scored 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting with one rebound, one assist, two steals, a block, and a three in 35 minutes. I added him in the aforementioned league ($35 of $1,000) when my higher priority FAAB plays weren’t rich enough, and over the past two weeks he is providing mid-round value on the strength of 12.4 points, 0.9 threes, 4.6 boards, 2.0 steals, and 50 percent field goal shooting in 30 minutes per game. Sure, there’s a handful of risks in the form of Daniel Gibson (neck), Anthony Parker (back), and Omri Casspi, but Byron Scott has taken Gee under his wing and al! l of this adds up to a near must-own value in 12-team leagues. Gee fits the profile of a guy the Cavs will want to develop, assuming he continues to hold up his end of the bargain. MR. BIG SHOT Chauncey Billups was ruled out for the rest of the season due to his Achilles’ injury, but said that he would be back on an NBA basketball court next season. I’m going to bet on that happening, and I’ll take a long-shot bet that he hits a big shot late in the next year’s Western Conference Finals – for the Lakers. In the meantime if you haven’t added Randy Foye you’re probably too late, and I like him to put up late-round value with a hint of upside while Mo Williams flourishes with the increase in touches. DANILO GETS THE PARTY STARTED, MAKES THE PARTY STOP George Karl said that Danilo Gallinari (ankle) could be out “a month” after doctors determined that the ‘chip-fracture’ they found was from a prior injury, and the best we can tell is that he might have a high-ankle sprain. He’ll be in a boot for 3-5 days and start rehab, and if the term ‘rehab’ is being used strictly then we’re certainly looking at a multi-week absence. And if we’re watching his music video, I’m pretty sure the John Wall hand movement is all he has. Looking forward, Arron Afflalo (toe, ankle, not serious) and Rudy Fernandez (back, probable for Wednesday) are now worth a look in 12-team formats. Afflalo has disappointed this season and his production is way off the fantasy radar, and it’s probably due to a mix of injuries, his late start due to the lockout and contract negotiations, and the presence of Andre Miller. Schematically, the Nuggets have enough new and improved firepower in Miller, Ty Lawson, Al Harrington, Fernandez, and Gallinari to allow Afflalo to focus on defense. Will! Gallinari’s absence require a change in focus? At least a little bit, but the Nuggets won’t exactly be in a pinch to score so it’s possible he continues to focus on defense. On the other hand, Fernandez’s role is to score and hit threes, with anything else being icing on the cake. He’s already providing borderline value in 12-team, 8- and 9-cat formats on the strength of 1.3 threes and 1.1 steals in his 24 minutes per game. Does it make more sense for the guy built to shoot and score to pick up where Gallo left off? At least a little bit. My take here is that Fernandez is the better add despite an unclear role and the likely chance that he comes off the bench. Afflalo could easily pick up enough value to be worth an add, too, but with both guys a relative question mark I want the guy with the higher ceiling – and that’s Fernandez if he’s given the green light. GROIN PAINS Carmelo Anthony will be out 1-2 weeks with his groin injury, and the short-term pickup is going to be Bill Walker, while Steve Novak will be the other guy you want to keep an eye on. Toney Douglas has a small window to gain some momentum from the second unit, but it’s also starting to sound like his shoulder isn’t right. Combined with his poor play there are enough red flags for him to stay on the wire. The big winner is Amare Stoudemire, when he is done grieving over his brother’s tragic death. Jeremy Lin is a pure pick-and-roll player and he’ll get Amare rolling toward the hoop and that’ll bring stability and added productivity to his already improving game. Elsewhere in the backcourt, Iman Shumpert and Landry Fields are must-own players in 12-team leagues as of today. Teams will scheme Lin out of the game more than they have been, and with some of Melo’s minutes landing in their bucket they’re favored to produce low-end results, at a minimum. LINSANITY There’s no real news here other than the post-game comments of Mike D’Antoni on Monday about riding Jeremy Lin like he’s “friggin Secretariat,” though I feel it’s necessary to point out that I thought he was talking about that game and not necessarily going forward. Do I think he’ll ride Lin going forward? Yes, but it’s not like Lin is the untouchable starting point guard of the Knicks right now. He’s just the point guard with the best chance to be effective and help the Knicks win, which is good enough for owners to be looking to add or hold. Now that he’s opened everybody’s eyes, he has every chance to solidify his role and I believe he’ll do exactly that. STRUNG OUT Monty Williams said that he believes Eric Gordon (knee) is 1-2 weeks away from “strenuous workouts,” and Thursday marks Day 14 of the 3-6 week timetable given to media on his last update. When I got that report and had to decide what to do with him in a daily league, I decided that he needed to stay on the three-week side of that timetable for me to hold on. Therefore, if he isn’t performing “strenuous workouts” on the one-week side of Williams’ prediction I’m out, which will be a huge net loss for my squad. I just can’t keep losing the productivity, and with each passing day that it’s being proven that his knee is all jacked up, the guarantee for future results gets diminished. It speaks to the way owners can get strung out by in! jured, early round guys in these formats, and there’s no real answer other than to cut-and-run early and live with the guy killing you later. FOUR QUARTERS OF FURY 1ST QUARTER: Ben Gordon (shoulder) still hasn’t gone through any contact drills, and given prior reports about “multiple tears” I’m not counting on a return anytime soon… which is good news for Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey. Knight (broken nose) practiced on Tuesday and should play Wednesday, and has a decent chance to pay off owners that started him in a three-game week. Spencer Hawes (back) is getting an MRI, and I’m getting antsy to pick up Nikola Vucevic in 12-team league! s. He has been spotty himself the past few weeks, but unless his knee/quad issue is more serious than anybody is letting on I have to think he’ll be a clear beneficiary if Hawes is damaged goods. The downside is that the Sixers are playing to win and Vucevic won’t have a long leash, and the upside is his fantasy friendly game. 2ND QUARTER: George Hill (ankle) sounds like he’s coming back sooner than later, but he has a lot to prove before he substantially alters fantasy plans in Indy. MarShon Brooks (toe, Achilles) put up set shots and sounds like he’s a week or so away at least, but I’ve been adding him wherever I can. It’s a bit of a risk, but the upside is too much to ignore. Anthony Morrow (personal) is expected to be back for Wednesday’s game and should be in all lineups despite the chance he’s distracted by his grandmother’s death. Nene (heel) is a game-time decision on Wednesday and we’ll get a good idea of how hurt he is if he! can’t go, since his presence is more needed with Danilo Gallinari (ankle) out. That said, the Nuggets will still play it safe. Samuel Dalembert was definitely benched on Monday, and it’s one of the better kept secrets that he has issues with effort and selfishness on the court. Am I dropping him? Fat chance. 3RD QUARTER: Derrick Rose (back) is going to try to play on Wednesday, but he’ll be playing the Hornets and that’s a good opportunity to rest. He looked to be in significant pain on Monday and back injuries are no joke. Rose owners may want to bite the bullet and handcuff C.J. Watson, while those hunting for spot-starters may want to make a speculative add, too. Luol Deng (non-shooting wrist) says he “feels great,” but I’m not taking much at face value out of Chicago these days (and Deng is a gamer). That doesn’t mean he isn’t feeling better, but that I’m letting on-court results do the talking. Marcus Camby (bronchitis) is probable and needs to be in lineups barring a negative report. Raymond Felton (foot) is a game-time decision and I was admittedly bummed after calling him a buy low player last week. If the injury isn’t serious, I’m still on that boat, though it’s a real concern that conditioning could be at the root of his foot’s issue. Jason Kidd (calf) did some light jogging and still sounds like he’s about a week or so away. 4TH QUARTER: Jarrett Jack (knee) practiced on Tuesday and will be a game-time decision on Wednesday, and the general sense is that Greivis Vasquez will get 25-plus minutes playing both guard slots once Jack returns. The only concern is that Monty Williams is a jerker, but it should still take a Jeremy Lin/Nikola Vucevic type for owners to pass on Vasquez at this point. He fits the picture in New Orleans. Jason Thompson (! seven points, three boards, 25 minutes) and Isaiah Thomas (zero points) cooled off last night, and owners should set the sights lower for both. Thompson might have been playing over his head and injury risk Chuck Hayes is looming, while Thomas’ minutes are shaky and the bone-chip fracture in his left hand co |
