Blocked: The Serge Ibaka Story - 02/02/2012
BY Aaron Bruski We’re knee deep into the NBA season and before you know it we’ll be talking about the trade deadline in wonder about where it all went. There are teams that are still tweaking rotations like it’s training camp, and there are other teams that are legitimately packing their seasons in to play the young guys. Somewhere, Billy Hunter and David Stern are laughing at us all. FOR REAL-TIME NEWS AND FANTASY INFORMATION, CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER. TODAY IN SERGE IBAKA Serge Ibaka played 40 minutes and scored four points last night, but went off with a season-high 10 blocks and 11 rebounds last night. Check my prior work to get some back-story about the so-called defensive lapses that Scott Brooks and the local media have used as rationale for why his playing time has been stolen by ancient Nazr Mohammed, mediocre Kendrick Perkins, and a solid but fully-developed Nick Collison. You’ll hear more about it today, with reports about his changed defensive approach laying the groundwork for why a third-year player is not being developed when he has the potential to be a game-changer in the playoffs. It's bunk. Meanwhile, I’ll keep on evaluating Ibaka’s fantasy value by Brooks’ willingness to play him, and not by some misguided explanation about a guy I’ve graded out as average-to-elite on 95 percent of his defensive possessions. And on a separate note, any time Perkins gets a premeditated entry pass in the post, I immediately return my trust rating in Brooks’ coaching ability back to Rambis. TOO HOT TO HANDLE, TOO COLD TO HOLD LeBron James scored a season-high 40 points with four triples and a full stat line, but the Heat lost to the Bucks last night. Brandon Jennings traded blows with him and hit seven triples of his own, scoring 31 points on 9-of-25 shooting with four rebounds, eight assists, and four steals. I’m all but sure Jennings’ field goal percentage will revert back to career form, but the rest of the numbers we’ve been seeing have a strong chance of holding. That’s a recipe to sell-high in leagues where field goal percentage can hurt you, but by all means be terribly picky. I think he’s good enough and needed enough to avoid Scott Skiles’ machinations, after two solid weeks of staying Skiles-free with Beno Udrih around. In other Bucks news, Ersan Ilyasova wants out of the NBA but he can’t stop producing low-end value, and had another nine points, 14 boards, and two blocks. Face it, you’re never, ever going to feel comfortable using him, but after three weeks of this productivity owners with a hole in their roster have no excuse for passing him up. Drew Gooden was awesome again with a 17-9-5 line, and is already on the shortlist for waiver wire pickups of the year. As for Stephen Jackson, he’s still in the doghouse and played just nine minutes. Bench and hold, unfortunately. Carlos Delfino was active in the 1! 9 minutes Skiles granted him, scoring 11 points on 3-of-6 shooting (3-of-5 from deep) with a block and a steal. There’s potential there, but I have zero trust in the situation after the past two weeks of Delfino being jerked around. NICK NOLTE APPROVED Roddy Beaubois hit just 3-of-13 shots for nine points, four rebounds, and four assists last night, and we need to see better play out of him this week for any role change to take place when Jason Kidd (calf) returns. As of tonight, my guess is that Kidd’s minutes are not threatened. That said, owners need to hold Buckets until Kidd gets back for the right to find out. Ian Mahinmi got a start with Brendan Haywood (back) out, but scored just six points with nine boards and needs to do more in these opportunities to convince owners to make the add. I like him in the position battle, that’s only half the battle! for Mahinmi. Dirk Nowitzki is still slumming it up, this time without a crazy woman involved, and wrapped up last night with a 2-of-15 shooting mark, eight points, and eight rebounds. Yes, he’s still a buy low target and is a better target with each passing dud. Delonte West backed up his season-high 25 points with just five points in 16 minutes last night, which illustrates the trouble with the guard slots in Dallas. One or two of them will be left out on most nights. Vince Carter struggled with eight points on 3-of-10 shooting and an otherwise respectable stat line, and still might be the most productive of the three remaining guards until Kidd gets back. And if you had Rick Carlisle! punting a basketball into the stands like a poor man’s Nick Nol te, you are the amazing Kreskin. ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO Chris Paul scored a season-high 34 points with a fat stat line and Blake Griffin followed up his horrifying dunk on Kendrick Perkins with another nice night, scoring 31 points with 14 boards and three blocks. In 8- and 9-cat leagues Griffin has been a punter’s play, as his free throw shooting and blocks have dragged is overall value down. That may be changing, though, as he’s currently averaging 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks per game and that makes him much more versatile in fantasy leagues. Punting more than one category sets owners up for trouble in my opinion, and this trend makes Griffin a much more manageable asset. BULLS ON PARADE Joakim Noah went 0-for-3 from the field and finished with two points, seven boards, and no blocks in 27 minutes, while Taj Gibson played 21 minutes and was productive. I’ve been blurbing at you guys to sell-high and hopefully you thought about it. In other Bulls news, C.J. Watson’s 20-4-4 line was a total fluke, but if you’re in a deep, deep league he has a shot at some value while Luol Deng (wrist) and Richard Hamilton (groin) are out. ROTATING PISTONS Austin Daye played 11 minutes last night as the Pistons stayed big with Jason Maxiell at power forward instead of Ben Wallace (five minutes), and Jonas Jerebko played 31 minutes on his way to 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting (including a three). Jerebko has provided late-round value recently on the strength of 95% free throw shooting, 52.5% field goal shooting, and otherwise versatile, but unspectacular stat lines. The lack of counting stats is a bummer and so is playing off the bench, but give him a look if you need to plug a hole in your lineup. As for Daye, I wasn’t on that train and probably won’t be until the Pi! stons’ rotation thins out. TOUGH PILLS Danny Granger is back to being productive and had a nice little altercation with Kevin Love (21 points, 17 boards, no threes, one block), and the two might still be talking trash this morning. Granger hit 9-of-19 shots (including five treys) for a season-high 36 points with seven boards and the buy-low window is shut. FOR UPDATED PROJECTIONS, DAILY PICKUP ADVICE, EXCLUSIVE CHATS, AND MORE CLICK HERE. ROCKET SCIENCE Kevin Martin hit 10-of-21 shots (including six threes) for 29 points and it’s safe to project that his foot is healthy for fantasy purposes after two solid nights. Kyle Lowry hit just 5-of-12 shots for 15 points, but had seven assists, two steals, and a three and this could be the best buy-low moment he has all year. As far as I know, he has court on Thursday and could easily have been stressing out. Luis Scola scored four points with three rebounds in 25 minutes, and I don’t think he’s worth the risk on a buy low offer in 8- and 9-cat leagues. Yes, he can only go up, but can he stay above the Mason/Dixon line in 12-team formats? In 8-cat leagues it’s possible, but it’s ! possible the failed trade and the coaching change (among other possibilities) have sapped his confidence. The Chandler Parsons project has disappeared but has the type of fantasy friendly game that props his value up. He scored just three points with one rebound and two assists in 16 minutes, while Courtney Lee (32 minutes, 15 points, 7-of-12 FGs) soaked up his minutes and not Chase Budinger (nine minutes, zero points). This kills any momentum for Budinger with owners and makes Parsons droppable, but if you find he had a minor injury it might put this outing into proper perspective and give owners looking long-term a reason to hold. Either way, I’m not going to kill anyone for dropping Parso! ns with his upside seemingly held-in-check. DON’T LET THE SUN GO DOWN ON ME Steve Nash (thigh) returned from a one-game absence and put up 30 and 10 and set the franchise career assists record, but the real fantasy story was Channing Frye, who scored 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting with seven boards, a steal, and two blocks. I called him a reverse psychology stash yesterday in the event he stopped sucking, and in this lockout inspired season it wouldn’t be shocking if it took a guy like Frye two months to get his flow back. For what it’s worth, I held him in my 12-team big money league in which we start 12 guys with four reserves. Jared Dudley started again and scored 15 points with a reasonably full stat line. I recently added him with a big FAAB play in that same lea! gue and feel like I’ve got a reasonable starter. Grant Hill left Wednesday’s game with a knee injury, which if serious could open up minutes and opportunities for Dudley and Frye, as well as Markieff Morris (five points, one three, one block, just 10 minutes) and Josh Childress (eight points, 4-of-4 FGs, four boards, 21 minutes). NO AGRAVIOS Forgetting that DaJuan Summers started at shooting guard and played 15 forgettable minutes, even if he hit 2-of-5 shots (including a three) for five points, let’s get to the good stuff. Greivis Vasquez has always had the talent to step in and produce right away for the Hornets, who lack talent, but he needed to learn the system and we may find out one day that Monty Williams played the situation too tightly. Either way, Vasquez’s 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting with three treys and 12 assists in a career night were a big-time explosion – big enough to possibly force Monty’s hand. Marco Belinelli has no business playing big minutes in the NBA, and Vasquez is essentially a shooting guard masquerading as a point. Yes, there are risks – Monty is a ‘yanker,’ as in he yanks guys around, and Vasquez hasn’t been reliable to date. Everything else is in place, though, so if you have a guy that you can afford to cut now is the time to take a flier. CASEY AT THE BAT Ed Davis started over Amir Johnson last night and scored 10 points with 12 boards and two blocks, and appears to be the favored fantasy play for now. Just don’t expect consistency from Dwane Casey until Casey proves he can be consistent. For now he’s tinkering. Jerryd Bayless was moved out of the starting lineup (no real surprise) and scored 14 points with two threes and not much else. I had him stashed in two 12-team leagues and added him in three more since he got healthy enough to play. I’m not dropping him and might not all year if all goes as planned. JUST A PEK I took a chance on Nikola Pekovic in a 12-team league two days ago, because he is noticeably quicker and that is keeping him from fouling out. Ricky Rubio has also done a good job of setting him up in the pick-and-roll, and even though Darko Milicic (illness) returned I can’t see him staying healthy and/or consistently effective. Pekovic had 13 points and 12 boards last night and he might end up being the most consistent near-double double guy in the league when it’s all said and done. FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS Josh Howard was ineffective last night with four points and three rebounds in 22 minutes, while C.J. Miles (16 points, three boards, two threes, 22 minutes) and Gordon Hayward (12 points, 5-of-11 FGs, three rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block) were productive. One of the three will be left in the cold each night, and all of them are worth a look in fantasy leagues. I’d rank them Hayward, Howard, and Miles as long as Howard is healthy, and if Raja Bell (adductor) returns to the starting lineup then I don’t like Hayward as much. Hayward has some shakes to his game, but not enough to get his own shot when de! fenses sag off of Bell knowing they can chase him off the 3-point line. REDICKULOUS J.J. Redick should be owned in all 8- and 9-cat, 12-team leagues after providing late-round value all year, because Jason Richardson’s knee and athleticism have me wondering if he’s falling off a cliff. Once again, excellent signing Otis. Redick scored a season-high 21 points on 5-of-7 shooting (including three treys) and won’t be available for long. NEAL BEFORE POP I’m not buying Gary Neal’s 15-point outing and if you want an update on Kahwi Leonard he’s still on that deep-roster, 12-team big money squad. Leonard (eight minutes) will be the first to go during our weekly FAAB, however, after failing to break Gregg Popovich’s tendency to play matchups and mess with rookies. I don’t mind stashing him due to his overall value preposition within Pop’s scheme (and the fantasy realm), but it’s impossible to ignore that Manu Ginobili (hand) will be back soon and things are going to get crowded. Leonard hasn’t been helped by the fact that Richard Jefferson’s veteran presence has been more necessary with Ginobili out, and t! hat Jefferson has answered the call by hitting his jumper and playing focused, albeit flawed defense. Leonard’s strengths are obvious, but his flaws are accentuated playing somewhat out of position at shooting guard. Elsewhere along the Riverwalk, Tim Duncan (25 points, seven rebounds) has a very good chance of being rested on Thursday, so owners have been warned. THE BOBKITTENS The Bobcats are awful and lost by 44 points to the Blazers last night, and this symbolic loss is just one more reminder to the organization that it’s time to play the young guys. Kemba Walker hit just 1-of-11 shots for four points and three assists, and owners would have to be crazy to drop or move him, regardless of what is happening with D.J. Augustin. Kemba will be on the court this year. Tyrus Thomas had a typical Tyrus line with seven points, five boards, two steals, and two blocks, and is young enough to qualify for the youth movement. Bismack Biyombo is also a Bobkitten, and I have him stashed in a few! places. RUN RAYMOND RUN It might seem like a bad night to evaluate the Blazers after they helped Gerald Wallace (23 points, five boards, three steals, one block) exact revenge upon his old Bobcats squad to the tune of a 44-point dismantling. It’s easy to dismiss a box score under normal circumstances, but two key guys that have been shooting awfully bad lately deserve a spotlight nonetheless. Less relevant to last night’s result is Wesley Matthews, who hit 3-of-6 shots and is shooting a career-low 41 percent on the year. Jamal Crawford’s arrival isn’t doing him any favors, but it’s a bit of a stretch to put Matthews’ troubles entirely on that. He’s simply not making shots, and t! hose things tend to work themselves out as long as the player in question hasn’t fallen off a cliff. If Nicolas Batum’s knee injury (day-to-day, trying to play Saturday) is more serious than he or the team is letting on, then Matthews will have even more opportunity to work back toward his 45.5 percent career mark. Sitting at mid-round value in 8- and 9-cat formats on the year, and late round value in the last two weeks, there is room to buy low here. Then there’s the case of Raymond Felton, who got fat over the summer and while slimmed down since those photos were snapped, he hasn’t been running the ball like Nate McMillan wants. Felton’s answer as to why he won’t run? “I don’t know,” he said when asked about it before last night’s game. Wouldn’t you know he ran the ball last night, and with Jamal Crawford his only real competition at point guard he has all the time in the world to get his act together, at least until Nolan Smith becomes an option (read: not anytime soon). Felton has late round value on the year in 8- and 9-cat formats, and that has improved a bit over the last two weeks, and his 37.2 percent mark from the field is also bound to move toward his 41.1 percent career mark. As for buying low, we’re talking about a starting, pedigreed point guard with little to no competition for minutes with the law of large numbers on his side. That he could play worse is certainly a possibility, but what are we talking about here – a 70 percent chance he improves? 80 percent? Nate McMillan praised him for running the ball last night and here’s a shocking theory – the fat out-of-shape guy is getting into shape two months late and didn’t want to push tempo early in the year because he couldn’t. Assuming Felton continues to push the ball, which he is being asked to do, the touches and opportunities will increase. With extra opportunities guys usually do one of two things – play their way out of a role or get a better feel for their own game through the added success they have. Felton is good enough to be the latter. He is the definition of a buy low guy. ODDS AND ENDS Kenyon Martin is going to decide this weekend where he will sign, and owners might as well just wait to hear where that will be outside of desperate, deep-league scenarios. Shawne Williams started at small forward with half of New Jersey injured, and despite his own leg issues he could be worth a look for his 3-point shooting. Williams had 11 points, five boards, and three treys last night. Ishmael Smith was called up by the Magic and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stan Van Gundy give him a shot. He knows what he has in Chris Duhon and will be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Jameer Nelson scuffling. I’m not buying Jason Smith’s 1 |
