Dose: To Sell or Not to Sell - 01/04/2012
BY Aaron Bruski Because I aim to please I decided to go big on this Dose, as usual, but the Kobe Bryant wrist injury and Andrew Bynum beast mode got me digging into game tape. Decisions to buy or sell those guys are going to be big for owners, so I figured I’d go a bit more in-depth. I left them for the end, though, so if you don’t own those guys you can get right in it. And for more real-time news, information, and commentary likely to get me fired one day, you can follow me on Twitter here! And check out our Season Pass here. Updated daily, we provide daily pickups, projections, articles, exclusive chats and more. MAMA THERE GOES THAT HAND Maybe Mark Jackson or Doctor A can help me with my Golden State Warrior play calls, but in the meantime we’ll learn today how much James Anderson or Gary Neal can help owners when Manu Ginobili’s broken hand gets a timetable (hopefully). After a day for the dust to settle this situation is pretty simple, but has a few quirks. Anderson will start (unless Pop changes his mind) until Ginobili returns, and Neal still needs a few games to get into shape. During that time Anderson will have the chance to earn a significant role. If he hasn’t made an impression, he will likely cede starter’s minutes (and possibly the starting job) to Neal, who is mostly proven and has Pop’s trust. So do you take the guy with a head start or the guy who is proven if you’re staring at both? Neal has the higher upside if he goes off due to his potential for elite 3-point shooting, but Anderson shouldn’t be poo-pooed in that department, either. He hit 39 percent of his attempts last year and about 37 percent in college. He’s no Neal, but he’s not inept either. Anderson compares similarly to Marcus Thornton, who could score but also didn’t rock the combine with measurables, either. The answer lies in what you need. If you need a player this week the bet is on Anderson and his head start, his 6’6” height advantage (Neal is 6’4” and would make a small backcourt with Tony Parker), and the fact that Neal is not in game shape. The following week it’s Anderson if he’s hot and Neal if he’s not. If you’re looking for a home run, despite the fact that Neal could theoretically hit a bunch of threes and go off, you’re betting that Anderson follows up on his preseason promise and never lets go. If you’re playing it a bit safer and you’re iffy on Anderson, it’s Neal given what he has proven. Don’t say I don’t give something for everybody around here. ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Rookie Kyrie Irving hit 8-of-10 shots last night and finished with a season-high 20 points, two threes, three boards, six assists, two blocks, and zero turnovers in Tuesday’s win as he continues to live up to the hype. He’s providing fourth-round per-game value in 8-cat leagues in just 26 mpg so far and earning his lofty early mid-round ADP. Right now Irving is netting just under a steal and a full block per game, along with 1.2 threes to go with solid shooting percentages (45.9/46.2/78.6). He is otherwise averaging 14.6 points, 3.8 boards, and 5.6 assists. Looking at his late fifth round ADP (based on sketchy ADP data I might add), I never got my hands on the No. 1 overall pick because I had him projected at a seventh round return. Irving’s versatility is buoying his value and it’s a near certainty that he adds 10 mpg to his workload. I’d be willing to bet that we’ll see slippage in his field goal shooting, and most certainly his 3-point shooting rate. That block per game is going to go south, too. Overall, he’s only getting better. Scary. Knowing he’ll have another 10 minutes per game eventually to add counting stats, betting on top-60 value this year looks real good early. Heck, top-40 value looks like a good bet, but let’s slow our roll five games deep. Congratulations, though, if you burned a fifth round pick on Irving on draft day, because I know I had trouble pulling the trigger that early on a guy in a timeshare with eight college games under his belt. Fellow rookie Tristan Thompson had his first breakout game last night, scoring a season-high 16 points with nine boards and two blocks in just 24 minutes. This upcoming road trip sounds like a bad time to make rotation changes mid-stream, so my gut says Byron Scott holds him back until the end of it, but Thompson is a guy you’ll want to watch real close over the next few weeks. Once the Cavs pull the trigger on him these numbers are reachable every night. Thompson has definitely passed the ‘bust test,’ and the early returns are good for the Cavs’ war room.
PING PONG BALLS D.J. Augustin came in sporting a 1-of-11 shooting line from last game, but bounced back with a 10-for-18 mark for a season-high 26 points with four treys, four rebounds, nine assists, a steal, and a block in the Cats’ ugly loss to the Cavs on Tuesday. Kemba Walker was pretty bad last night and has hit a rookie speed bump, and Augustin’s ankle hasn’t made any news lately. Position battle advantage: Augustin. It can stay that way all year as long as Augustin plays well, obviously, and without any traction Kemba is not a must-own player in 12-team leagues. Boris Diaw started the season with a bang as the focal point of the Bobcats’ offense, but hit rock-bottom with his second straight stinker on a zero-point, five-rebound, one-block outing in 18 foul-plagued minutes. Maybe he’s one of us thicker fellas that can run for days with 30 extra pounds tugging at his waist, but one has to think the schedule got to him. Owners have lost the opportunity to sell-high for now, but it’s something to consider after each peak of production going forward. One advance scout said last night that the Bobcats are bad enough to finish with the league’s worst record, with Brook Lopez’s timeline for return to the Nets being the tie-breaker between the early toilet bowl contenders. What does this mean? For one, look for Bismack Biyombo and Byron Mullens to get plenty of run down the stretch. Mullens was miscast in Oklahoma City as a classic post guy (shocking, I know), but his pick-and-pop game is welcomed in Charlotte where scoring is needed. It’s a very complimentary pairing given Mullen’s rebounding and low-post difficulties, and Biyombo’s scoring troubles. They! complete each other. Diaw won’t just go away, of course, but we’re talking about an older, inconsistent asset over the years with conditioning issues playing on a losing team. MEMPHIS BARBEQUE The Grizzlies were cooking without Zach Randolph, who is officially listed as day-to-day and should be back sooner rather than later. Rudy Gay had his first breakout game with 23 points, eight boards, two assists, one steal, and one block with a 10-of-16 shooting line. For a guy that posted first round value when healthy, he went woefully underdrafted in my opinion. Marc Gasol continued to impress with his counting stats in a 14-point, 15-rebound, three-assist, two-steal night. The fantasy fluke of the night belonged to Sam Young, who went off for 20 points, seven rebounds, and three steals. The fantasy story on their sid! e of the ledger was Mike Conley (ankle) surprising everybody by coming off the bench, scoring a healthy 14 points with seven assists, four steals, and a three. Get him back in your lineup ASAP. O.J. Mayo showed up with 16 points and four assists, but in a game fraught with garbage time I’m not going to overlook his unimpressive body of work so far. Tony Allen made some noise with 10 points, seven boards, and three steals, but with Gay back in the fold these nights should be far and few between. Dante Cunningham started for Z-Bo, but seven points with four boards and three turnovers isn’t moving the needle. ! ; EYES WIDE SHUT They might have shot the ball better with closed eyes in Chicago, where the Hawks came pretty close to pulling consecutive wins on the road against the Heat and Bulls in the midst of a six-game in eight-nights set. In the end they wasted a 19-point lead when Derrick Rose came on strong, but this game was U-G-L-Y. The teams combined to shoot with 54-of-157 (34%), with the Hawks sporting a 14-of-25 mark on FTs (including two key misses by Jeff Teague and one by Al Horford). Here were the gory results: Joe Johnson (3-of-17 FGs, 10 points, four rebounds, four blocks), Jeff Teague (2-of-8 FGs, seven points, four boards), Joakim Noah (0-for-4 FGs, two points, four rebounds, four fouls, 16 minutes). Rose managed to score 30 points on 8-of-22 shooting with seven assists, three treys, and an 11-of-13 mark from the foul line, Luol Deng scored 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting with a three, eight boards, two steals, and a block, Carlos Boozer scored 11 points with nine boards, two steals, and a block, Josh Smith showed signs of life with 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting, 14 boards, one steal, and two blocks, and Marvin Williams finally paid off with 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting with eight boards and a steal. In a grind-it-out game like this it’s tough to get on Johnson and Teague for their poor shooting, especially given the Hawks schedule. The funny thing is that they play the Heat twice and the Bulls once more THIS WEEK. There is some serious opportunity to buy low with all of them if their legs wear out and/or they get run. At least they get the doormat Bobcats once during that stretch. Tracy McGrady suffered a bone bruise in his knee during the Miami game and was shuttled in and out last night. While we know he is not ready for 12-team action, he’s worth tracking for Marvin Williams’ owners. While Marvin has died down since a nice statistical start, and picked it up last night, there has not been one major complaint about his play out of Atlanta. In fact, the calls right now are to find other ways to get Williams on the court with T-Mac together. Plan on sticking with Williams through the rest of this condensed week and see where it goes. He’s playing well. COWBELL CONUNDRUM The conundrum in California’s capitol is something I pointed out the day they drafted Jimmer Fredette and traded for John Salmons. That is, of course, that there are too many ball-needy scorers, one basketball, and with a shortened preseason no time to figure out the pecking order. Problem No. 1: Tyreke Evans. Evans is supremely talented but he isn’t a leader, and he doesn’t know the difference between a good shot and a bad shot. He doesn’t know how to run an offense. He can put his head down, shake his guy, and make plays, and while that’s great it’s not to be built around. For fantasy purposes, he’s a guy I own on zero teams because I wasn’t buying a re-do on his rookie year, a year that produced just fourth year value in 8-cat leagues. In that year he was given carte blanche or Prima Nocta, I can’t recall which, but Kings management desperately wanted something to play for and the 20-5-5 record was what they decided on. Add Marcus Thornton, Jimmer Fredette, John Salmons, and an increasingly needy DeMarcus Cousins and owners likely overshot selecting him on draft day by about four rounds. Problem No. 2: Marcus Thornton. Don’t get me wrong, the kid has brass balls. He’s a dynamite scorer with somewhat overstated defensive issues. But after the late-season push he had last year, and with no preseason to find the optimal lineup I presented in June, he was handed the starting job next to two guys in Evans and Salmons that need volume to be effective. Problem No. 3: DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins was on his best behavior last night, and even hit the ground with a Gasol without so much as issuing a snide glance. On the bench during the first quarter he looked like a kid watching his friends play at recess during detention. Paul Westphal, who has lost Kings fans in just a week this season, doesn’t have the juice to tell Cousins what he can and cannot do on the floor. The ball goes in and it doesn’t go out. Manute Bol, Mark Eaton, and Wilt Chamberlain’s 30,000 conquests could be draped all over him and the fadeaway jumpshot IS coming. Result: The Kings are trying to run sets through Chuck Hayes, but all of the action coming off that set or the various pick-and-rolls they run is weak, lazy, and without direction. This is all the result of guys having no idea what their role is on the court. What the Kings need to do (and probably will do eventually): Look for guys to play their way out of favor with Westphal, giving him the clearance he needs to start Jimmer Fredette. The key to starting Fredette, in my opinion, was the ability to run Isaiah Thomas with the second unit. Thomas has proven he belongs, and adding Fredette to the point and moving Thornton to the second unit will bring ball movement to the equation. They should look at starting a defensive presence like Francisco Garcia or Donte Greene for 10-20 minutes per game and stick Salmons on the second unit, too. This balances the two units with scorers and defenders, giving Evans action at both the point and off the ball. Thornton knows that when he’s in the game that he gets to shoot, while Cousins’ sticky hands won’t offend as much with willing passers in Jimmer, Chuck Hayes, and whichever defensive minded SF they start. When all of that is done, they need to run. More possessions mean more touches and happier players. Fantasy Impact: If the Kings want to hire me they know where I’m at, but none of this is guaranteed to happen. But if you see the Kings move toward that configuration you will start to see stability and production out of your key fantasy guys. Right now defenses are swarming the first and second options knowing that the ball won’t be swung. As for defense, the Kings aren’t getting stops and that is exasperating them on the offensive end. Owners of Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, and DeMarcus Cousins simply need to hold on for better days. Consider moving them after their next big lines if the symptoms of the cold get addressed but not the cause. John Salmons is droppable for a hot free agent, even if he will be worth owning later on at times. Chuck Hayes is the team’s leader and last night’s 20 minutes isn’t concerning unless it happens a bunch more. J.J. Hickson sh! ould be on your watch list in case Cousins implodes. If things begin to click consider holding your Kings assets. But as it stands right now the conundrum in the capitol isn’t getting better until Westphal makes the move. As for Jimmer, realize that much of his production came in garbage time last night, and though 17 points with four treys looks mighty tempting, realize that he’s bound to be too inconsistent to own until you hear talk about him moving into the starting lineup. Once there, he will add assists and consistency to the equation and prove to be a dynamic fantasy player with upside. On the bench he doesn’t have the cachet to overpower the stares of his teammates, who right now want him to pass the ball. YOU GUYS NEED TO TRY HARDER! If you follow my Twitter feed you know I’m not a Scott Brooks fan. He hung his 22-year old PG out to dry during last year’s playoffs for running his stand-and-wiggle offense, constantly affirming to reporters in postgame pressers that Russell Westbrook needed to play better. It’s no wonder they had a shouting match. I recently had a high school coach look at video of last year’s playoffs and comment, without him knowing anything about my position, on Brooks’ offensive philosophy, sets, and overall strategy. I simply said, “See if you can point out what went wrong.” “There’s no off-ball movement,” he said. “No coordination, no help for the PG, and no commitment to making the defense pay for overplaying Kevin Durant.” When asked what they should do to get the ball to Durant he said, “Just look at Memphis and Dallas.” I’ve never seen a pass given like the one being given to Brooks, who commonly gets good marks from both the casual and hard core fan, despite what those that study Xs and Os roundly called the worst playoff coaching effort of the decade. What’s worse is that he uses playing time like currency much like a woman uses sex. Last night, Serge Ibaka got into early foul trouble, and I’ll be the first to admit that Ibaka has had lapses this season, but rather than shut down an on-fire LaMarcus Aldridge (30 points, eight boards), Brooks chose to play Ibaka 17 minutes. Nick Collison is a nice glue guy and performed admirably on the less physical game of Dirk Nowitzki, but he is no match for a guy in Aldridge with physical advantages. But that’s the way Brooks rolls. He wants Ibaka to buy into the ‘Brooks Way,’ but it’s anybody’s guess what that actually is. Russell Westbrook is still being told to ‘be aggressive, but don’t turn over the ball.’ Working on a set offense that can withstand the defensive scrutiny of a seven-game series? Not so much. Westbrook is still running at will, taking the first shot he sees, and then finding Durant for some one-on-one action. James Harden (23 points, four rebounds, six assists, three steals) finally got 40 minutes last night, which would be enough for any other NBA coach to signal a need to duplicate those minutes, but Harden also hasn’t bought into the ‘Brooks Way.’ Thabo Sefolosha (flu, foot) missed tonight’s game, and as Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman put it, Brooks seemed offended by the idea that Harden should start. All in all the Thunder didn’t have an answer for Gerald Wallace (13 points, 10 boards) and Nicolas Batum’s (12 points, seven assists, two blocks) defense on Kevin Durant (8-of-26 FGs, 19 points) because they don’t know what to do when the opposing squad has an answer for KD. They bumped him, they swarmed him, and that’s going to be the Thunder’s cross to bear going forward. Find an offense, find an offensive theory, and use the regular season as a way to teach Westbrook and Ibaka, who have elite, championship ceilings, how to function when opposing teams game plan Durant out of the game. “It just tells us one thing,” said Brooks about their loss, “that we have to get better.” It looks like “trying harder” just isn’t working as a rallying call. Fantasy Impacts of the POR/OKC game: Harden is unlikely to gain a starting job or big minutes despite the big result, but his future is still about as bright as it gets. I’m not moving him anywhere. Westbrook is turning things around after a bumpy start. I’m holding Ibaka as well, as the talent and ceiling is too high. Putting in a buy low offer? Only a low-ball one. The Blazers are impressive. One of their guards/wings is going to be the odd man every night, but on the whole they’re going to be worth owning. Batum’s fantasy friendly game makes owning the boat of them possible – he can be effective in limited minutes. Jamal Crawford (eight points, two assists) took a dive but Nate McMillan (a reformed Brooks it seems lately! ) uses him as a PG which gives him some versatility. Wall |
