Lockout Basketball - 12/28/2011
BY Aaron Bruski It was an easy call coming into this season to point to the lockout and find a myriad of issues facing NBA players, teams, and fantasy owners alike. While we had seen some of the side effects in the first two nights of action, the lockout’s impact on the game was on full display Tuesday night. Let’s jump right into it, and follow me here on Twitter for real-time news and fantasy advice. LAKERS AVERT 0-3 START ON THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF BASKETBALL Tuesday’s matchup with the Jazz looked like a disaster in the making for the Lakers, as they found themselves going against a supposedly fresh-legged Jazz team on the tail end of a back-to-back-to-back. Andrew Bynum was still suspended, Pau Gasol (shoulder) and Josh McRoberts (toe, thumb) were possibly banged up, and Kobe Bryant’s wrist was hanging by a thread. It turns out the Jazz were the ones out of shape and without answers as the Lakers rolled easily by the score of 96-71. Kobe Bryant scored 26 points on 8-of-17 shooting, and the good news was that he took (and made) more threes than in the two games prior, while also chipping in with eight rebounds, five assists, a steal, and a block. I have been very outspoken on the issue of his wrist, particularly after screaming from the mountain tops last season when Eric Gordon and Deron Williams got knocked out of action due to the same type of injury. Complicating matters in this Twitter day and age is the fact that players, teams, and media types tend to relay positive information regarding wrist injuries, in part because the players themselves often don’t know the extent of the damage. They need to push themselves to find out if they’re dealing with a dull pain that they can play through, and the key is whether or not the pain is going to continually worsen to the point that surgery becomes inevitable. In the case of both Gordon and Williams, both reported that they were fine and that their injuries were minor, only to find out that they couldn’t (or shouldn’t) push themselves any further. Kobe is a different type of animal, though, and after last night’s game listening to him talk about how ridiculous it would be if he sat out, I was admittedly ready to take a step back and turn my red flag into a yellow one. In addition, Mike Brown’s offense has provided early signs that Kobe may be more active both shooting and distributing the ball, and the Mamba’s numbers have seen an uptick over last year’s campaign. But Kobe’s wrist is still very swollen according to beat writers and he was constantly fidgeting and in pain, and while we all know he will try to play as long as his wrist is still attached to his arm – that could be precisely the thing that sends his wrist down the path of no return. If the swelling is as bad as reports have indicated, I’m not ready to back off my recommendation that owners sell Kobe while he’s tearing up the stat sheet. Getting a player that is projected to return second or even third round value is a realistic goal, and even if Bean goes nuts this season owners are looking at a small price to pay to cash in their chips on a guy with a ton of mileage, a bum knee, a bad shooting wrist injury, and the potential for rest down the stretch. PAU SHOULDERING THE LOAD Pau Gasol said after Tuesday’s game that he thinks his shoulder injury is under control, not that anybody was overly worried about it. He turned in another fine outing with 22 points, nine boards, two steals, and a solid five blocks. Metta World Peace dunked a basketball, which is worth a headline these days, and he continued to be productive with 14 points, five boards, a steal, and a block. Get ready for his value to dry up as Andrew Bynum has just one more game on suspension, and the Lakers’ power forward combo of Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy are going to see their minutes shifted into Peace’s bucket. Devin Ebanks is still quiet, so if you took a flier on him it’s time to let go. CAPTAIN CRUNCH While Kobe’s wrist and the Lakers’ struggles were the dominant storyline, the more intriguing story was on Utah’s side of the floor where coach Ty Corbin is treating the season’s first few weeks as training camp, literally. For a guy who coached under Jerry Sloan and is already acclimated to the team one would think he had the major issues worked out. Instead, the Jazz were woefully underprepared and looked like they had played three straight nights, rather than the Lakers. At the heart of the issue is that Corbin and the Jazz organization are still trying to decide if they should play their young guys from the jump, and they should be, but they’ve gone halfway by starting Raja Bell at shooting guard. C.J. Miles had it hinted to him that he would be the starting small forward, but plans changed and he was slated to come off the bench along with veteran Paul Millsap (quad), who was a game-time decision that ultimately was a go. Second-year wing Gordon Hayward was given the nod at small forward. Of course, the vets are wondering if the Jazz are throwing in the towel early, but the lack of a clear vision is what’s unsettling them the most according to those around the team. All of the confusion was evident as the Jazz bickered with one another, and perhaps the most telling problem is that they have yet to name a team captain. Maybe that’s because the guy that deserves it (Millsap) is probably going to go on the trade block in February. It all culminated in a franchise record loss that saw the Jazz miss 23 of 25 field goals at one point, including an impressively bad 2-of-16 effort from Al Jefferson. He was seen on the bench with a heavy wrap on his right knee, and while nobody made a stink of it that’s the last thing owners spending a second round pick on him wanted to see after his garbage night. Jefferson wasn’t the only one who stunk, as Devin Harris scored just five points with six assists, Bell scored six points and did nothing else, Hayward was limited to seven points, Favors ran into early foul trouble and lasted just 18 minutes, and Miles slumped off the bench with a 1-of-8 mark from the field. Millsap was one of the Jazz’s few bright spots with 18 points, eight boards, and a block on a 7-of-15 shooting line. One would think after Millsap’s solid outing and Favors’ rough night that the starting job would be up for grabs, but beat writer Brian Smith said after the game that Corbin has “made it clear that Favors has earned a spot in the starting lineup.” Luckily for Millsap’s owners, he will probably hold more value than was (reasonably) forecast in draft season. Yes, there are a lot of bigs in contention for minutes, but Favors is going to deal with foul trouble and Millsap is comfortable coming off the bench. As for Favors, he should be owned in all leagues as the torch has clearly been passed. He won’t come with a full guarantee due to the aforementioned fouling issue, but he’d have to fully face-plant to not return at least late round value and he has plenty of upside. As for their teammates, owners would be wise to disregard the results of Tuesday’s game as best they can. Hayward should be owned for at least the next few weeks as long as he is starting, especially knowing the Jazz will want to develop him all season long. Now is a sneaky time to throw a quick ‘buy low’ offer to Jefferson’s owners, as the ice on the knees and shooting line could cause them to panic, and it would be a pretty big surprise if the Jazz snuck a serious knee injury past the Utah media last night. CHUCK NORRIS COLE If you hadn’t heard of rookie PG Norris Cole you’ll surely know him after Tuesday’s 20-point, four-rebound, and four-assist outing that saw him take over, yes take over, the fourth quarter of the Heat’s win over the Celtics. Cole took a key charge, hit key free throws late, hit key jumpers left and right, and had the Heat fans chanting ‘MVP.’ Not bad for a guy selected No. 28 overall out of Cleveland State in June. As Ramona Shelburne of ESPN put it, “hasn’t Cleveland given Miami enough?” Cole has an aggressive scoring mentality and has already earned the trust of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, while Mario Chalmers pulled a Sean Williams and threw up all over himself with four consecutive turnovers to start the second half in an awful outing last night. The early reports suggest that Cole hasn’t earned the starting job quite yet, but the damage may already be done. Cole adds a legitimate fourth scoring threat to the floor in the Heat’s base lineup, and while it’s easy to dismiss him as having his hands tied playing next to the Super Friends I’m not so sure it’s clear cut. For one, we haven’t seen the Miami Big Three play next to a legitimate scoring point guard, so it’s a bit simplistic to assume they won’t integrate Cole into their scoring plans. Second, Cole will have all the room in the world to operate and will be the poison other teams pick consistently. Third, they genuinely seem to like the noted hard-worker and wouldn’t it be #HumbleBrag of them to take the rookie and make him their star? I’m only half-kidding, but Cole’s fearless attitude has clearly worn well with the guys that matter. I’m going to be adding Cole in leagues that I don’t have a stockpile of already startable assets, because as Wade put it after the game, Cole reminded “him a lot of himself.” That’s good enough for me. Paul Pierce’s absence due to a heel injury will have him shelved until Friday at the soonest, and in the meantime Rajon Rondo had another monster line with 22 points, eight boards, and 12 assists. Ray Allen also picked up the slack and it goes without saying that both will settle down when Pierce returns. Brandon Bass returned to Earth with 13 points and five rebounds, and I’d expect Tuesday’s result more often than his 20 and 11 from Christmas Day. Chris Bosh bounced back after a slow start Sunday with 18 points, 11 boards, a block, and a three, and after a solid offseason I wouldn’t bet against him too heavily, especially if he wants to drill threes now. KING-SIZED LETDOWN If I was a betting man I would have bet on the Kings beating the Lakers on Monday, given the juxtaposition of the two teams’ momentum and the Kings arena situation turning those fans into even crazier nut jobs. The arena was loud, emotional, and covering the finale for ProBasketballTalk last season, that game was easily the most compelling sporting event I’ve attended. The Kings missed their storybook ending that night after a 20-point comeback that left thousands in their seats crying over the thought of losing their team, literally. They weren’t going to be denied on Monday, and it was realistic that they’d have a letdown at the Rose Garden. Tyreke Evans was tentative and finished with just four points on 2-of-8 shooting, while Marcus Thornton showed some of the sticky fingers that would’ve gotten him benched in New Orleans in a 5-for-15 shooting dud. Thornton still managed 15 points, and owners of both players shouldn’t be concerned about their long-term outlook. The Kings are going to run the ball up and down the floor this year and rack up a ton of stats for fantasy owners, and both guys are highly motivated. Rumors of Tyreke Evans’ conditioning issues were greatly exaggerated, and that’s coming from a guy that was all over Evans for last year’s conditioning issues that caused his plantar fasciitis. Paul Westphal said before the game that he likes his current starting lineup and that is good news for Chuck Hayes, who right on cue played an identical 27 minutes on Tuesday night. Hayes appeared winded at times, and perhaps that’s because he’s playing more defense than his teammates, or just the result of a week off due to heart testing. Hayes finished with solid ninth round value last season, and while he might not see as many minutes as he got last year as Houston’s only center option I like him to have late-round value in 8- and 9-cat formats. Feel free to drop J.J. Hickson as he will be capped by Hayes’ presence, as Hayes is a lockdown defender that has already taken over as the team’s leader. Westphal is going to rely on him to provide sanity to th! e youngest team in the NBA. I have bad news for owners drafting DeMarcus Cousins hoping he would make advances in attitude and shot selection – it’s just not going to happen this season. He’s going to struggle with foul trouble and he will get ejected at least a couple of games due to his hilarious reactions to anything foul related. Heck, he should have been ejected already after cocking his fist back toward Pau Gasol on Monday. Like Blake Griffin, his categorical shortcomings will keep him from justifying his lofty ADP. BLAZER PUZZLE The Blazers had an interesting night after letting the Kings hang close for the first half, as Nate McMillan tipped his hand with a few lineup combinations and did a pretty good job in my opinion mixing and matching personnel. Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, and Nicolas Batum can be considered last night’s fantasy losers, but none of them are in dire straits. Felton was pulled late due to conditioning issues, but nobody in the Portland media seemed overly concerned about it so we won’t be either. Matthews left briefly due to a minor back strain and returned later, which may explain his struggles last night. Batum was upset after the game over his lack of playing time, and it’s just a hunch but I get the sense McMillan will throw Batum a bone. On the winning side of the ledger were Jamal Crawford, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby. Camby said after the game that he felt great, which constitutes a win in any sense given his brittle condition. Aldridge is also brittle right now, but only because he’s still getting into game shape. He took an ice bath before the game and said he immediately regretted it, but still managed to put up 24 points against perhaps the league’s best low post defender in Hayes. Aldridge is poised for a big year and if he dropped in drafts due to heart concerns owners are getting a great value. Crawford didn’t have the best shooting night, hitting just 2-of-11 shots, but continued to solidify his presence as a backup PG and distributor of the basketball, with four assists for the second straight night. The shots will fall and owners should hope he continues to get minutes as the backup PG, as that will keep him from stealing too many minutes from the other wing slots. Gerald Wallace had the big line of the night for the Blazers, with 25 points, eight boards, five assists, and two blocks, and if after posting No. 6 overall value last year following his trade to Portland we’re not surprised by this type of impact. He’s custom-fit for the Blazers’ athletic lineup, as he can finish in transition and gets great spacing from his teammates to operate within. The only risk is his injury risk, and Wallace could end up being a fantasy game-changer if he can stay healthy. HOW TO BURY A 30-20 LINE AND FEEL JUST FINE ABOUT IT Kevin Love scored 31 points with 20 rebounds in what some could even call an ugly performance, especially if you’re a Bucks fan angry with how many foul calls Love got. He broke multiple Wolves records for foul shooting on Tuesday with a 19-of-24 mark from the stripe, and what was most interesting to me by a wide margin was his weight. I had seen pictures and heard he had gotten into shape, but immediately after I flipped to the game I thought I had seen a Chase Budinger-looking guy sky in for a dunk. It was Love, looking like he hung out with Cousin Balke from the movie True Romance all summer. For a guy who drew numerous ‘love handle’ puns when he entered the league, he now has the even more quickness and leaping ability. That didn’t help him steal the! ball or block any shots, of course, and the fact that he hit just 6-of-18 shots with no threes sealed the deal on the ugliest 30-20 line I’ve seen in the last 10 years. Michael Beasley looks like he has the starting small forward job locked up for the foreseeable future, as he hit some key shots late and finished with 15 points and seven boards, while rookie Derrick Williams looked fairly bad while barely registering on the stat sheet. Williams will have his day, but that day is not today. Ricky Rubio got some help with J.J. Barea’s hamstring injury, which Rick Adelman said was possibly “more than a day-to-day” injury. We’re not sure if Rubio will collect on Barea’s minutes or if they’ll go to struggling Wesley Johnson or mediocre Wayne Ellington, but I’m fine with taking a flier on Rubio in 12-team leagues with low expectations – particularly if you need the assists. Just remember that his poor shooting will cap his upside and that he is a better in reality than in fantasy right now. GOT A BUCK? The Bucks are now 1-1 and have played in two close games, and if you’re looking for a story out of Scott Skiles’ fantasy killing environment it came in the form of second-round draft pick F Jon Leuer. Leuer came off the bench to score 14 points with eight boards, two steals, and two blocks, with a number of key plays including a three-point play that proved pivotal in the win. He’ll be stuck in a quagmire that includes Drew Gooden, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Larry Sanders, but Leuer may surprisingly ha! ve the talent to rise above the fray. He has already taken the backup center minutes behind Andrew Bogut, and owners need to be ready to move if he can secure a 25-plus minute per game role. Some slight derivative of tonight’s output would be likely in that scenario. For now, he’s waiver wire material, however. Stephen Jackson managed to stay in the game on Tuesday after fouling out in 17 minutes on Monday, and finished with 16 points on an all-too-familiar 7-of-20 shooting line. Jackson slipped far in drafts due to concerns about his back and Skiles’ rotations, but we like him to get his act relatively together before the risk part of the equation dictates his value. If he can return even 80 percent of his normal production, he will likely justify his ADP. Brandon Jennings had a nice shooting night with 7-of-14 makes, moving him to 1-1 in that department on the year, but the impressive thing about his play is that he has just two turnovers in two games. Never one to turn the ball over too much, perhaps the controlled play will influence his shot selection, but that’s probably just wishful thinking. JERSEY’S SORE This was another lockout game, as the Nets hosted the Hawks for their season-opener and were apparently too tired to put up a defense and gave up by the end of the second quarter. Like the Jazz, Kings, Wolves, and Celtics, the Nets turned the ball over left and right and didn’t have the legs to play on the second of two nights. Avery Johnson pulled all of his starters just after halftime and didn’t play any of them more than 25 minutes, leaving rookie Marshon Brooks free to score a team-high 17 points off the bench. We think Brooks has a shot of making it in the NBA with his impressive scoring talent, but there’s no telling where the Nets go from here. All of Nets struggled, including Deron Williams, with Brooks and Kris Humphries (11 points, six boards, a steal, a block) posting the only respectable lines. Williams looks like a high schooler playing with elementary school teammates, and soon he’s going to want to see some improvement around him. The Nets will, too, after giving up the farm | 
