 | Leaving a Mark - 12/29/2008
BY Gregg Rosenthal This is a week for coaching firings and post-mortems. It's a week when our player news page is humming: the busiest week we'll have until training camp starts again. (Sigh.) Before we start fully looking ahead to 2009, however, let's take one quick look back at Week 17 at what fantasy leaguers need to know. Our rankings for fantasy playoff leagues will be coming soon.
This Could Leave a Mark
Week 17 events to remember into the off-season
1. Michael Turner's 25 carries and 208 yards against St. Louis was a fitting end to his breakout season. He knows how to beat up on a bad defense. But the big workload puts him at 376 carries and at huge risk for breaking down next year. A long playoff run would hurt even more.
2. Matt Cassel played another great game against Buffalo despite throwing only eight passes. Tom Brady's health will be a huge factor, but the most likely outcome is that Cassel will be starting elsewhere next season. I suspect the Patriots will franchise him, and then find a trading partner.
3. LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk were wildly effective to close the season toget! her as a committee for New England. That should confirm Bill Belichic k's belief that a committee is the best way to go in the backfield. Remember this no matter how healthy Laurence Maroney says he is next year.
4. Trent Edwards keeper league owners need to keep an eye on Dick Jauron. If the coach stays, Edwards is almost guaranteed to be the unquestioned starter next season.
5. Fred Jackson ran for 136 yards against the Patriots in one of the most impressive displays I saw all season. New England stacked the box with eight and nine guys every play, and Jackson's vision and leg drive were remarkable. He carried defenders on his back. Jackson finishes with 888 efficient yards from scrimmage and 37 catches on the season. He averaged more ya! rds-per-carry than Marshawn Lynch and is a better receiver. That's bad news for Lynch owners because Jackson has earned a spot as the lesser half of a committee long-term.
6. I still need to watch the tape, but Cedric Benson's 462 yards in his last three games will get him some job offers this off-season. His best chance to start, by far, should be staying in Cincinnati.
7. Larry Johnson wants out of Kansas City. His 18-yard effort against Cincy should help his cause. Why would a new coach want to bother with him?
8. Kyle Orton played reasonably well against the Texans! , and the Bears have already said he will be their man in 2009. This isn't great news for the rest of the Bears offense.
9. David Carr's solid second half against the Vikings should keep him in the league for a few more years.
10. Deion Branch caught six passes for 90 yards and two scores against Arizona. He's easily Seattle's best big-play threat. After returning from ACL surgery, Branch finished with 316 yards and four touchdowns in his last five games. That should be enough for Seattle to bring him back next season, even at a high salary.
11. Injuries gave Michael Bush the chance to prove he's a tailback, not a fullback, and he delivered with 177 rugged yards and two touchdowns against Tampa. The Bucs have made a lot of backs l! ook good, but Bush makes a lot of sense as a backup tailback that can hammer defenses. Unless the Raiders let go of Justin Fargas, though, there may not be enough playing time for Bush next year.
12. You don't want to read too much into a meaningless game full of backups, but Vince Young's 55-yard, 13-attempt effort against Indianapolis was brutal. It could make Tennessee's off-season decision about their quarterback position even tougher.
14. Ken Whisenhunt finally got tired of waiting for Tim Hightower to turn it around, and Edgerrin James played well in his place. Edge won't be ! back next year, but Hightower probably won't be the starter in Arizona either.
15. Clinton Portis was held under 3.2 yards-per-carry for the fifth straight game. He racked up decent yardage, but the Redskins have to be worried how slow he looked by the end of this season. Portis turns 28 next year, but he's an old 28.
16. Shaun Hill played just inconsistent enough the last few weeks to hurt his chances for starting in San Francisco next season. With Mike Martz likely out, Hill's fantasy prospects will take a big hit regardless. Look for the 49ers to bring in another possible starting quarterback.
17. The Roy Williams trade in Dallas may go do! wn with the Hershel Walker deal as one of the worst in league history. Dallas will lose this one, but they have no choice but to keep him next year. You can't say the same about Terrell Owens, but it's hard to imagine Jerry Jones will let him go.
18. Tony Romo's poor finish to the season, against very difficult competition, should keep his price tag enticingly low in next year's drafts.
19. LaDainian Tomlinson has undeniably looked fresher the last two weeks. He ran much harder against a collapsing Bucs defense and a terrible Broncos defense, but don't forget the first 14 mediocre weeks and how easy his schedule was. Two good weeks doesn't return him to top-five prominence next year.
First-Round Mock for 2009
I'm goi! ng to do my Top-50 Keepers soon, and will include a three-round Mock a t that time. I fully intend to change my mind on this first-round Mock by then, but here is a quick-and-dirty initial gut reaction for next year's first round in standard leagues. It should be an interesting year for magazine projections and rankings. There should few clear-cut strategies, rankings and lots of disagreement.
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Matt Forte
4. Marion Barber
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Brian Westbrook
8. Frank Gore
9. Andre Johnson
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Larry Fitzgerald
12. Brandon Jacobs
Just Missed, in no parti cular order: Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Ja! y Cutler
This Week in Megatron
102 yards and two touchdowns in cold conditions in Lambeau was a fitting performance to end Calvin Johnson's season. If you were awarded points for degree of difficulty, Megatron would be judged as the best fantasy player of 2008.
They're real and they're spectacular
1. A hearty salute to Tony Gonzalez, who finished the season with a touchdown in his fourth straight game. He scored seven times in the second half of the season and caught at least five passes in every game since Week 5.
Gonzo finishes the season with 40 points more than the next closest competitor at tight end, which is more than 25%. That's incredibly valuable. Forty poi! nts is also the difference, for instance, between Jason Witten and Kevin Boss.
2. Steve Slaton was supposed to be a third-down back. He also was supposed to be wearing down around Week 10. A huge last six weeks, which included 25 touches-per-game, proved he can carry the load. He finishes with 318 touches and a sure starting job next year. The only question is whether the Texans will find him a committee partner.
3. With 134 yards, Steve Smith finished with 1,421 yards in only 14 games. That is only the second time he's topped 1,200 yards. Andre Johnson added 148 yards against the Bears, but he didn't quite average 100 yards-per-start like Smith did.
4. With 178 more rushing yards, DeAngelo Williams finishes with 1,515 rushing yards and twenty total touchdowns on 273 carries and 22 catches. Adrian Peterson narrowly won the rushing title and yards from scrimmage title. For the first time in 12 seasons, no player topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
5. With a playoff spot on the line, LeRon McClain got 25 carries; Willis Mc Gahee had four. Expect the Ravens to add backfield talent, but McClain should have some staying power.
Saying Goodbye?
1. In what could have been their last games in St. Louis, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt put together decent performances. Bulger threw for 230 yards, 90 of which went to Holt. Despite player pleas to keep Jim Haslett, we suspect a new coaching staff will be in place next year. And they probably won't want to keep Holt and Bulger's bloated salaries. We prefer to remember the good times earlier this decade rather than the miserable 2008 season.
2. Deuce McAllister says he won't retire, but it's hard to imagine the Saint! s bringing him back next season. With 81 more yards on only 13 touches, Deuce finishes with 546 yards from scrimmage on the year. He did better than anyone could have expected, but New Orleans is probably ready to turn the page.
3. Ronald Curry and Javon Walker started the year as Oakland's starting wideouts, and ended the year on injured reserve. Walker's career may be close to over, while Curry should end up elsewhere next season.
4. Antonio Bryant would be well served to stay with Jon Gruden in Tampa, but he's likely to max out his money by testing the free agent waters.
5. Marvin Harrison was fed the ball Sunday, catching seven passes . 31 yards. Harrison's numbers, of course, are down across the board. But his 10.6 yards-per-catch average is especially damning for a "deep threat" that isn't physical. It would be a surprise if he returns to the Colts next year. | | This e-mail is being sent at your request. To stop receiving these e-mails, click here. | |
